HALL OF CHAMPIONS
SPOOKYMILK SURVIVOR
I: Rachel “The Double-Dealer” Flynn
II: Ryan “The Snake” Fossum
III: Patrick “The Gentleman” Kozicky
IV: Brienne “The Submitter” Maner
V: Rusty “The Porn Star” Greene
VI: Brooks “The Unlikely Hero” Maki
VII: William “The Soulful” Schuth
VIII: Brooks “The Survivor” Maki
IX: Zack “The Ice Cream Man” Sauvageau
X: Pete “The Vacuum Cleaner” Bruzek
Turbo: Brooks “The 1956-1979 Montreal Canadiens” Maki
XI: Matt “The Cold-Hearted Motherf*&^er” Novak
All-Stars (XII): Andy “The Quiet Man” Rustleund
XIII: Sarah “Clarence’s Hope” Bizek
XIV: Dan “The Professional” Kautz
XV: Christina “Assault And” Pepper
XVI: Matt “The First-Time Player” Novak
XVII: Stacy “Saintly Patience” Snell
XVIII: Brian “Checkmate” David
XIX: Annette “Eammon for the Top” Barron
XX: Daniel “Neville “Smash “Hardware” Hardwood” Longbottom” Caouette
XXI: Pete “The Comeback Kid” Bruzek
XXII: Dan “The Even More Professional” Kautz
XXIII: Melissa “Don’t You (Forget About Me)” David
XXIV: Stacy “Fucking” Snell
GODS AND MORTALS
I: Dragging Rivet’s Name Through the Mud One Last Time: Matt Novak (Ultragrandpa) and Michael Rivet (Friph Flipher-Fiph)
II: Bahambo Number 5: Pete “Triple Crown” Bruzek and Michelle “Single Tiara…So Far” Pratt
BIG BROTHER
I: Brooks “Oh, for the Love of God” Maki
II: Michael “#DDB” Rivet
III: Pete “Fortune’s Fool” Bruzek
IV: Erin “All Seven and We’ll Watch Them Fall” Leslie
V: Jake “Littlefinger” Elliott
FALL, CAESAR
2014: Brooks “The Creator” Maki
2015: Matt “The Artist” Novak
2016: Matt “Waited Them Out” Novak
2017: Annette “I Would’ve Voted for You” Barron
THE ROYAL RUMBLE
2013: #21 Greg “The Gallant Glutton of Greatness” Johnson
2014: #29 Jonathon “Big Papa” Pope
2015: #8 Christina “Am I in This?” Pepper
2016: #22 Annette “No Backs Stabbed” Barron
2017: #30 Bernice “The Vulture” Nicaise
2018: #17 Carrie “Solid Gold” Bard
2019: #16 Jake “The Jabroni” Elliott
PLAY WITH THE PROSE
(Writing, non-elimination)
I: Sarah “Centipede Face” Johnson
II: Sarah “The Johnson Eliminator” Wreisner
III: Colin “Lonely Old Moon” Woolston
IV: Melissa “Not Sidebar Material” Diamond
V: Sama “No Family Reunions” Smith
VI: Sarah “Tumor Face” Wreisner
VII: John “Cult Following” Wreisner
VIII: Joshua “Peed the Bed” Longman
VIII: Annette “Oh, Right, That’s Who Won” Barron
WEREWOLF (most recent)
Werewolf Stats Spreadsheet
PUZZLE CHALLENGE
I (Pure): Matthew “The Obsessor” Gilman
I (Power): Kelly “The Novak-Destroyer” Wells
DIPLOMACY
I: Matt “Exploiter of Worlds” Novak (France)
Casa de Leche 
545 comments
Comments feed for this article
August 29, 2018 at 9:15 am
Warhammer
First codefox invites me to y’all’s village and then he goes off and dies! I knew he wasn’t feeling well yesterday, but that thing progressed rapidly!
So…..my suspicions immediately go to Novak as a bartender (and a likely Wolfie one at that) as I heard Ink shout out his name as the noose tightened last night!
I’ve still got my eyes on Nettie and and beezy was a little suspicious with the late entry vote even if pre-announced…
So let’s get things started….vote mbnovak
August 29, 2018 at 10:55 am
nettiebarron
I’ve not my eye on YOU. Did you or did you not give the mod Ebola?
August 29, 2018 at 10:56 am
nettiebarron
*Got not “not.” Good god.
August 29, 2018 at 11:00 am
daneekasghost
Did you got give the mod Ebola?
I’m confused.
August 29, 2018 at 11:07 am
nettiebarron
Hush, you.
August 29, 2018 at 11:00 am
Warhammer
I may have given codefox Ebola….hopefully werewolves are then susceptible to Ebola when they ate him!
August 29, 2018 at 9:17 am
mbnovak
I blame Inkarnit for not protecting the right person. That guy is the worst, right? (It’s all love, Colin subprime, all love. Well, tolerance. It’s all measured tolerance.)
August 29, 2018 at 9:24 am
mbnovak
I’m of a mind that we obviously need to hear from Colin Prime and Beezy today. That’s not exactly analysis, just stating the obvious.
Melissa’s absence smacked of wolfiness to me. It was unexplained ahead of time, responded too, and then slipped right back into. That’s not atypical for wolves.
I get why people will put me on a list, so that’s certainly a thing we can do if people want, but obviously I’m not going to be off of anyone’s radar, so we might as well throw some pressure in other places (I mean, if people want, that’s fine, but we’re wasting time focused on me).
Codefox’s death is interesting to me, and I’m gonna check out his game more to see if anything specific stands out. Nettie’s caution from yesterday still seems somewhat relevant (and if she’s a wolf, then I suppose my and DPWY’s defenses of her would be somewhat relevant too?) Plus DG is still alive, and then there’s meat who felt different to me yesterday. So many targets, so little time.
For now I’m going to start with: vote Melissa.
August 29, 2018 at 10:01 am
todahshy
That last paragraph feels icky to me…
August 29, 2018 at 10:02 am
todahshy
I wasn’t really on the Novak train last night but this seems off to me. I still think Nettie is my top option though.
August 29, 2018 at 10:08 am
mbnovak
Anything specific? I really think those things are all true in that last paragraph (well, the DG one is kind of a joke), I just don’t have more to say about any of those things as of now.
August 29, 2018 at 10:09 am
todahshy
The DG one was the one that raised my brow.
August 29, 2018 at 10:10 am
mbnovak
Good to know. Yeah, that was 90% gag.
August 29, 2018 at 10:47 am
beezypoof
additionally, to this point, she spent a lot of time digging on other people yesterday, even when she WAS there. at least up until 2:00pm. strange way to “be present,” if you ask me.
August 29, 2018 at 9:52 am
Inkarnit
***DEAD***
Subscribing.
And also offered to take over mod duty for Kelly since he’s sick. Stay tuned.
***STILL DEAD***
August 29, 2018 at 9:59 am
todahshy
Sweet role claim! Oh wait….
August 29, 2018 at 10:04 am
daneekasghost
vote: Colin Prime
I’m halfway there!
#DeathToAllColins
August 29, 2018 at 10:05 am
Colin Prime
I’m sort of here. I haven’t read anything from yesterday yet, but will before I head out for the day.
I just closed/took possession of a new house ahead of schedule and have been working 18 hour days to get stuff done and just didn’t get a chance yesterday. I’ll do my best to be more around today and give what analysis I can.
August 29, 2018 at 10:10 am
mbnovak
So he wasn’t silenced, which would suggest that no one was silenced yesterday (?), which would suggest that people rejected drinks and/or they didn’t get sent?
August 29, 2018 at 11:07 am
beezypoof
CP could be trying to protect the silencer by claiming he wasn’t silenced, yes? this makes sense to me, but sometimes things make sense to me that don’t make sense to other people.
August 29, 2018 at 11:13 am
mbnovak
I don’t know if that makes sense… 😉
August 29, 2018 at 11:33 am
beezypoof
how come?
August 29, 2018 at 11:49 am
mbnovak
It was just a joke… But at the same time, I don’t know how CP would be protecting the silencer, as CP has no knowledge of who the silencer is, unless he’s a wolf, and even then, so what, why not just say you were silenced?
August 29, 2018 at 10:08 am
todahshy
Have I ever mentioned how much I hate the last second village pile on? I don’t think I’ve ever seen it actually catch a wolf.
Now to go back and see who flopped last night.
August 29, 2018 at 10:36 am
meat
I flipped because last game I was questioned for not making a decision between the top two vote getters. Ink clearly was hiding a role, and unfortunately we killed him for it.
August 29, 2018 at 10:13 am
meat
Derp. Novak is a wolf. Fo. Sho.
vote Novak
August 29, 2018 at 10:31 am
ash10101
This rings all kinds of alarms for me
August 29, 2018 at 10:36 am
meat
Me too. Novak is a fucking wolf. Am I ringing the alarm bell loud enough?
August 29, 2018 at 10:38 am
ash10101
I don’t necessarily think he ISN’T a wolf but just walking in and dropping a vote on him with no reasoning seems weird
August 29, 2018 at 10:44 am
The Dread Pirate
And not noticing that meat argued all day yesterday that Novak is a wolf (and provided his reasons why he thought so) also seems weird.
August 29, 2018 at 10:49 am
ash10101
I did notice that? I just thought it was odd he voted immediately for novak today without like, giving a reason or what not.
August 29, 2018 at 11:14 am
mbnovak
Ash’s response strikes me as odd, yes, but because it implies a knowledge of my villagerness. And Ash doesn’t have knowledge of my villagerness.
August 29, 2018 at 10:20 am
daneekasghost
Voting times, I’m not including comments here.
nettiebarron
DG – 3:24*
Pope – 6:12
Novak – 6:39*
Ink – 6:41
Code – 6:53*
Warhammer – 7:03
Todah – 7:04
*novak off – 7:22
*DG off – 8:51
*codefox off – 8:54
ash on – 9:00
Inkarnit
Melissa – 7:52
novak – 8:15
Pirate – 8:26
*DG – 8:51 (off nettie)
*codefox – 8:54 (off nettie)
meat – 8:59
beezy – 8:59
myself and codefox the only direct flips from nettie to inkarnit. Novak went from one to the other through Warhammer.
August 29, 2018 at 10:26 am
daneekasghost
Comments that stuck out to me.
Warhammer’s shrug on the nettie vote, then a really forceful refusal to move as time expired.
beezy vote on inkarnit – “everybody’s doing it!”
August 29, 2018 at 10:54 am
Warhammer
“Not changing…I stick to my suspicions!”. I wouldn’t call that forceful refusal, but I use lots of ellipsis and exclamation marks. I was simply never convinced by the mad rush to take out Ink.
That said….I don’t know how anyone has a strong view on day 1 for anyone. I assume the Wolfies don’t know of each other until night one like this game in person…
August 29, 2018 at 11:15 am
beezypoof
I hadn’t had time to read everything, so i went on the person with the most votes. that’s all i had.
August 29, 2018 at 10:47 am
BigPapaJonTheElf
Your timestamps confused me, because it’s too early for me to be converting from Central to Pacific time.
August 29, 2018 at 10:21 am
todahshy
So floppers I have identified:
DG from Nettie to ink
Codefox…We know is villager
Beezy from Melissa to ink
Meat from Novak to ink
DG and Meat I find interesting.
DG pushed us all on Annette hard and then flopped?
Meat flops from Novak and is now pushing him again today?
August 29, 2018 at 10:30 am
daneekasghost
DG pushed us all on Annette hard and then flopped?
I was reading the reactions to the nettie train and there were two waffly/hedged votes for her right toward the end of it (inkarnit and warhammer). Made me think it was wolves voting for a villager.
August 29, 2018 at 10:31 am
codefox
*** Dead ****
Hah, Ink and I were the first 2 killed last time too!
*** Dead ****
August 29, 2018 at 10:35 am
The Dread Pirate
Novak’s second post today is all kinds of wolfy. He throws suspicion at six different players while commenting on the night kill simply to say he’ll need to review it for why. Again, there’s no reason to say it rather than just doing it unless you’re trying to ingratiate yourself with the village.
For example, last game, DG didn’t comment that he was going to review my posts. He just reviewed them and presented what he found.
vote mbnovak
August 29, 2018 at 10:40 am
todahshy
It was funny when I made my post about going to look at the floppers I was like “dang that sounds really wolfy” but I am on my phone and too lazy to change it and I have nothing to hide so whatevs.
But yeah i agree his post was no good.
August 29, 2018 at 11:18 am
mbnovak
Yeah, and I’m more stream-of-consciousness and have nothing to hide, so whatevs.
I have no knowledge of anything, so lots of things seem potentially wolfy to me. I haven’t had time to go back and look at things (I’m in the middle of a Codefox review but have had to do things at work several times), so I put it out there that I would do a review.
August 29, 2018 at 11:30 am
beezypoof
can you further explain why it’s wolfy for someone to say out loud that they’re gonna look back to see if they can observe anything in a lynched villagers game that might indicate why the wolves would kill him? i don’t understand why that’s true (i don’t doubt you, i’m just wondering why.) thanks!
August 29, 2018 at 11:31 am
mbnovak
I mean, I get it. Because it’s easy to say you’re going to look. Heck, I’ve done it as a wolf. I’ve even “gone back” and cherry picked things when I was a wolf. But it is not inherently wolf or villagery, because villagers do it to.
August 29, 2018 at 11:34 am
beezypoof
okay, gotcha.
August 29, 2018 at 12:41 pm
todahshy
To me it sounds like OJ saying he is going to go search for the real killers.
August 29, 2018 at 2:02 pm
The Dread Pirate
Perfect!
August 29, 2018 at 10:42 am
beezypoof
vote meat
i’m in the middle of my analysis from yesterday, and the big thing that stands out to me so far, the BIG one, is that the first four major things he posts, before 1:00pm, are to tell us that he’s not a wolf. like…nothing else but that. he doth protest too much.
i’ll continue with my yesterday analysis, and add more about what i’m seeing as we go. also will be keeping up on today’s stuff, and posting thoughts.
fyi: i suspect i will be out of commission here from about 4:00 until 7:00. i’m nannying twin toddlers overnight.
August 29, 2018 at 10:46 am
todahshy
The interesting thing about the “I’m not a wolf” thing is that there is a wolf role that if they get picked by the seer will come back as villager. Is this all a big setup to get served that drink and later get “cleared” when the peeks are revealed?
August 29, 2018 at 11:21 am
mbnovak
I don’t think one can really set up for that type of thing, because you don’t know who that bartender is and whether they’d go for it.
Honestly, I find the discussion of roles in this game to be kind of odd. That’s probably because I don’t have one, and haven’t even been offered a drink yet, so haven’t been forced to deal with the issue one way or the other. But given that we can’t have perfect knowledge because of that wolf, and that people can refuse drinks, I’m of the mind that we should treat this as a straight-up game, more or less.
August 29, 2018 at 10:54 am
nettiebarron
Vote DG He started the bandwagon on me last night and it seemed a trifle overdone to me, which isn’t like him.
I could also get with a Novak vote but that seems to be a train right now and I don’t want it to get out of hand before we get it all talked out.
August 29, 2018 at 11:05 am
todahshy
vote meat
I can’t shake this theory that he’s Mind Eraser now…
August 29, 2018 at 11:07 am
Warhammer
So I’m drawing a line in the dirt. Only villagers are allowed on my side of my line.
So far todahshy is welcome and…that might be it. Ash…you want on this side of the line? I feel bad for my intial vote on DG, but I’m not yet convinced to let you on this side…
August 29, 2018 at 11:08 am
todahshy
I’m not convinced on DG yet either. He did some things yesterday which seemed highly unusual for his villager game. Annette picking up on them and pointing them out today has me rethinking my whole stance on her now too.
August 29, 2018 at 11:14 am
Warhammer
Remember….I know no one here nor game play of any of you. I can safely assume Annette is Nettie? A werewolf coming up with logic on why someone is a werewolf is suspicious at best. I’m more convinced of letting DG across the line than Nettie…
August 29, 2018 at 11:21 am
todahshy
I agree I am more suspicious of Nettie (yes Annette is Nettie…Sorry about that I’ve been trying to make sure to use user names only for your benefit but I failed) than DG.
My only issue is I usually have a good read on DG as a villager. By this point in our last game I was totally convinced he was a villager but I am not having that we sort of confident read on him this game.
August 29, 2018 at 11:48 am
beezypoof
couldn’t she also be doing that to throw suspicion off of herself? i don’t know if she is (still sifting through yesterday, ugh), but we can’t be eliminating someone because they appear to be wolf hunting. everyone wants to look like they’re wolf hunting, villager and wolf alike.
August 29, 2018 at 11:09 am
Colin Prime
Ok, I’ve read day one (skimmed a lot, obv.).
The things that stuck out to me are:
1) Meat and Novak – whenever they engaged with each other the banter was light. like, carefully light. meat is on Novak all day, and then flips later, after saying he was “ok with his Novak vote.”
Novak is playing the silly game all day, despite what seems like several people putting actual pressure on targets and working toward a productive day one.
I tried reading the day as objectively as possible but I kept seeing these two as a wolf duo working at the bus game but then failing when the nettie / inkarnit wagons took off. It read very much like a strategy that was failing and they had to figure out how to move on.
2) Beezy wasn’t around much, as she said, but when she was her engagement was less than meaningful. mostly just to joke around.
3) BPJTE’s list felt at first like a villager list, but then I remembered who he is and I remember him having a DG level of cunning – i read it again and it stuck out as more trying to look like he was hunting without providing anything useful.
i feel most strongly about novak, especially after his entrance today.
novak
I have an interview and then I’m finishing demo on the new house today and painting. will be around as much as possible.
August 29, 2018 at 11:16 am
Warhammer
Is that a vote for Novak, or only Novak needs to know you have an interview and demo?
August 29, 2018 at 11:28 am
mbnovak
For whatever it’s worth, I think it’s fair to say that I was one of the leaders of the bandwagon against Ink. It is silly to suggest that my leading that would be just finding something to work because my planned strategy to bus meat wasn’t working. What’s more, I was on Nettie and then moved off when I didn’t have to, and called attention to new candidates (wargamer, ink). If the goal was to bus meat, and then find whatever worked, I wouldn’t have bounced off of something that was working (the nettie vote) to go find some other thing to work (the Ink vote).
Obviously I was wrong on ink. The point here is that your read of meat and me both being wolves is simply not a credible read. That doesn’t clear me (or meat), obviously, but your read of the two of us just isn’t a good read.
August 29, 2018 at 12:43 pm
todahshy
“What’s more, I was on Nettie and then moved off when I didn’t have to”
how would you know this unless you KNEW she was a villager??
August 29, 2018 at 2:01 pm
mbnovak
The point I was arguing with was the suggestion that meat and I were busing each other. If we were doing that and both wolves, like Colin suggests, then it wouldn’t have made sense for me to do that. Because then either I would have been successfully bussing Nettie, thus accomplishing what Colin Prime says I wanted to do, or I would have been moving between villagers pointlessly. Either way makes no sense. The argument that meat and i were busing each other is a terrible argument. That was the only point I was making, not anything else.
August 29, 2018 at 11:55 am
beezypoof
i’ve only made it through 2:00pm on yesterday game play, but at that point under my “wolves” category, i have “meat, Novak” written down. glad someone else has seen what looks like a pairing there. i saw them as a pair due to the fact that meat defends Novak at these times:
1:23 – defends Novak against votes piling on him (despite having voted Novak himself)
1:52 – says todashy shouldn’t vote for Novak
August 29, 2018 at 11:59 am
mbnovak
See my response above. I don’t mean to clear either of us independently, but the pairing idea isn’t a good one. Indeed, Colin Prime is arguing we’re a pair because we were going after each other, and you’re saying we’re a pair because meat was defending me. Those two things contradict each other…
August 29, 2018 at 12:05 pm
beezypoof
Correct, they do. but that doesn’t mean it isn’t true. the defending could be slips in your plan to act like you were against each other. they could also exist to contradict and confuse. not sure anyone else noticed that meat defended you….twice. even though he was also voting you.
August 29, 2018 at 12:19 pm
beezypoof
also, i’m noticing, his defense of you is veiled in statements that he “can’t wait to kill Novak, but let’s not pile on so quickly,” and “yeah, todah should totally leave his vote on me instead of moving it to Novak.”
at that point, looks like he’s concerned about talk of you being a wolf. he’s gonna continue voting you, but he doesn’t want TOO many people to vote you, cuz then he loses his wolf partner? just a thing i feel lik ei should throw out there.
August 29, 2018 at 12:20 pm
mbnovak
That bit about people not noticing meat defending me would be a fair point, except that it literally was a single exchange with Todah, very early in the day, based on a whole bit where Todah was all about defending me blindly and then feeling the blowback on that. I didn’t give that exchange any real credence, and I doubt meat or Todah would either.
August 29, 2018 at 12:41 pm
beezypoof
oughtn’t we all to be giving credence to the things we say and do here?
August 29, 2018 at 12:21 pm
mbnovak
You gotta remember, day 1 at 1 in the afternoon, there’s nothing to go on yet. You probably can’t read that part of the day with the same seriousness that you’re reading the end of the day.
August 29, 2018 at 12:37 pm
beezypoof
eh.
August 29, 2018 at 12:42 pm
mbnovak
That “eh” is huge. It puts the context to the situation. You’re targeting meat and myself based on a read taken out of context.
August 29, 2018 at 12:46 pm
beezypoof
let me qualify my “eh,” then: on Day 1, we have nothing to go on but what’s been written there. I’m looking at what’s written, I’m commenting on what’s written. I’m not targeting you all, i’m just saying this is what i’m seeing based on what is there up until 2:00pm. there’s not MUCH to go on, as you say, but there’s something. and today, i can only talk about that something that IS there.
August 29, 2018 at 2:02 pm
mbnovak
That’s fair, but you’re still only up to 2 (apparently), and on day 1 nothing of substance appears earlier than 2, with very rare exception. Keep going with day 1 then. Working off of early day 1 in the middle of day 2 is a mistake.
August 29, 2018 at 3:07 pm
beezypoof
i’m asking clarifying questions about day 1 that i didn’t get to ask on day 1. this tack of telling me to not bother with is is starting to irk me. you’re not telling anyone else how to play their game.
August 29, 2018 at 3:19 pm
mbnovak
I can understand the frustration, and I apologize. That said, I totally am telling other people how to play. I told meat to go hunt other people. Yesterday I told Inkarnit his exonerating people was bad. This is part of my werewolf game. When I see someone coming to conclusions I disagree with, or when I see them operating on incomplete or wrong information, I call that out. With you working off of only part of day 1 and drawing conclusions, that felt like you were a wolf using that against me (and possibly meat, who I assume is clean now, based on DG’s claim below, subject to confirmation later).
August 29, 2018 at 12:37 pm
meat
Pairing? I went after Novak all day, and right out of the gate today. Novak is hiding something.
August 29, 2018 at 12:38 pm
beezypoof
yep. but you also defended him (see your posts at these times) under veil of still wanting him dead. fishy.
August 29, 2018 at 2:02 pm
meat
I had no response to todah other than everyone needs to figure out who to vote for on their own. Day 1 is particularly hard. If my stated rational won’t change his mind to vote for Novak at that time then he should feel free to keep his vote on me.
I also wasn’t defending Novak, I was criticizing the rush to add too many votes. I was on Novak like white rice, not defending him.
August 29, 2018 at 11:32 am
Warhammer
As of 11:32a…
ash10101
beezypoof voting for meat
BigPapaJonTheElf
Colin Prime (1)
daneekasghost (1) voting for Colin Prime
The Dread Pirate voting for mbnovak
mbnovak (3) voting for MelissaD
meat (2) voting for mbnovak
MelissaD (1) voting for
nettiebarron voting for daneekasghost
todahshy voting for meat
Warhammer voting for mbnovak
August 29, 2018 at 11:33 am
Warhammer
Damn my formatting didn’t work….this helps me better visualize things.
August 29, 2018 at 11:36 am
ash10101
It’s hot as hell here so I’m gonna be gone for the next few hours swimming but after that I should be around for the rest of the day. At this point I’m gonna vote meat cause the novak thing really seemed weird to me
August 29, 2018 at 2:03 pm
meat
Which thing with Novak is wierd?
August 29, 2018 at 11:42 am
mbnovak
And here’s things I noticed reading Codefox’s Day 1:
First, DG agrees with Ink that Code seems like a villager. https://spookymilk.wordpress.com/2018/08/28/werewolf-speakeasy-iii-day-one/#comment-87736
That could be DG knowing something or it could be DG just thinking it, but I’m legitimately curious either way.
Second, https://spookymilk.wordpress.com/2018/08/28/werewolf-speakeasy-iii-day-one/#comment-87763
Codefox says he suspects Colin or Melissa, while voting Nettie. If it’s either Colin or Melissa maybe they’re paranoid about him and that’s why he’s night killed? That’s a pretty thin case, since other people were on both of those two as well, but it’s worth observing. Eh… actually, I read a little farther down that thread and he applies the same to Beezy. It was love of a theory, not actual targeting he was doing. Still, I suppose if the wolves were nervous he was onto them?
Third, https://spookymilk.wordpress.com/2018/08/28/werewolf-speakeasy-iii-day-one/#comment-87796
This implies Codefox has some level of knowledge about whether DPWY would take a drink, which means maybe the wolves thought he was a bartender. Doesn’t really implicate anyone in particular, but a reason he could be targetted. Especially when coupled with his seeming knowledge of Ink here: https://spookymilk.wordpress.com/2018/08/28/werewolf-speakeasy-iii-day-one/#comment-87842 (obviously he could only know one of them (and obviously he didn’t know either), but he seems to consistently imply a confidence level that suggests knowing something).
And then he was on beezy a few times yesterday too. https://spookymilk.wordpress.com/2018/08/28/werewolf-speakeasy-iii-day-one/#comment-87939 https://spookymilk.wordpress.com/2018/08/28/werewolf-speakeasy-iii-day-one/#comment-87833
Day 1 reads for everything there, so probably not worth putting too much stock in anything, but… that’s my read of Code.
August 29, 2018 at 11:45 am
mbnovak
For whatever it’s worth on the roles (after I earlier said I felt like we should treat this as a vanilla game and discussing roles was odd…)… it occurs to me that the only characters who want to be peeked, now that the angel is gone, are vanillagers by the good seer, and the hidden wolf by the good seer. Is the value of the good seer knowing some vanillagers worth the risk of getting bad information about the hidden wolf and giving the wolves their other peeks?
We should all always refuse drinks at this point, right?
August 29, 2018 at 12:10 pm
The Dread Pirate
I was going to say that there is definitely a value in having the good seer able to clear villagers, but the good seer can’t even 100% do that, so I’m thinking you might be correct. On the other hand, at this point there is only a 10% change that the cameleon wolf (or whatever the name is) is the one offered the drink by good seer today, so I think it still might make sense to accept until the candidates get whittled down a little more. I don’t know if we want to neuter the good seer so quickly.
August 29, 2018 at 12:15 pm
Warhammer
Damnit…you’re convincing…..you must be the bad seer!!
August 29, 2018 at 12:17 pm
mbnovak
There is 0% chance that the other two wolves accept a drink that they don’t know about. So the good seer wouldn’t ever get confirmation on those two. There is a 100% chance the hidden wolf would accept a drink.
So the good seer can really only clear (at a 90% confidence) other villagers, and then only if they accept a drink.
The good seer should 100% reject a drink, since it comes from the wolves. If a vanillager is offered a drink there’s a 2/3rd chance it comes from the wolves. If the vanillager accepts it their vote is locked and/or they’re silenced, OR for the other wolf, they narrow the pool of good seers down. If it’s the good seer, then the vanillager is known by one person who can’t really come out with that info because we don’t have an angel any more.
If we all reject drinks we neuter our good seer, but our good seer is largely neutered anyway, right? We also neuter the wolves, including the hidden wolf, and then we’ve just got a straight-up game, with whatever info the good seer currently has, plus the identity of the good seer (assuming they come out).
August 29, 2018 at 12:27 pm
beezypoof
okay, y’all: whose logic is correct here? (it is actually too confusing for my stupid brain to wrap around.) either wolf Novak wants to neuter the good seer, so none of us should drink anything, or DG is a wolf for saying we SHOULD drink (admittedly i’m less on that bandwagon, cuz of what seems like a day 1 connection between meat and Novak, and i feel like meat is a wolf). what are the thoughts of others?
August 29, 2018 at 12:31 pm
nettiebarron
When did DG recommend we drink? I, too, struggle with these issues.
August 29, 2018 at 12:31 pm
mbnovak
Reasonable people can disagree about this sort of thing (and DPWY and I have historically disagreed about this sort of thing). It’s a question of whether you think the good seer is more valuable than the wolves are dangerous.
Only the good seer really knows for sure (if they have multiple confirmed peeks, are able to talk today to share them (though presumably the good seer wouldn’t have taken a drink at all, so wouldn’t be silenced) etc.).
And, FWIW, I know I haven’t been served a drink, so I know the good seer won’t be clearing me (or implicating me for refusing a drink), so this won’t take any extra heat on or off of me.
August 29, 2018 at 12:39 pm
BigPapaJonTheElf
Novak is more correct. It pains me to say that.
August 29, 2018 at 12:42 pm
meat
Novak can be both more correct about this and a wolf.
August 29, 2018 at 12:42 pm
mbnovak
I can be, yes. I’m not a wolf, but my correctness doesn’t exonerate me.
August 29, 2018 at 12:44 pm
beezypoof
you’re right, not entirely. but when i’m in a position where i can’t fully understand the statistics, it’s good to hear other people’s thoughts on what i’m taking away from it. this is why i ask.
August 29, 2018 at 1:09 pm
The Dread Pirate
But if the wolves are always going to refuse a drink, then the good seer learns nothing if all villagers also refuse. On the other hand, if good seer is the only villager who is refusing, then wolf seer can figure that out, too. Might make sense for each vanillager to independently decide how to proceed.
August 29, 2018 at 1:14 pm
mbnovak
If we all refuse, it protects the good seer.
Of course, if we all refuse, it gives the good seer no reason to keep offering drinks, and their power is neutered too.
August 29, 2018 at 1:30 pm
beezypoof
conundrum.
August 29, 2018 at 1:19 pm
mbnovak
If we’re going to leave it up to individual vanillagers I’d recommend they use random.org to decide whether to accept or decline.
Of course, if they decline the good seer, that neuters that power too, so… refusing makes our good seer worthless. I dunno. I think we all refuse, our good seer can come out and tell us what they know, and we as a village now don’t have to worry about the wolves’ powers any more.
Thoughts?
August 29, 2018 at 1:28 pm
beezypoof
i can get behind this, i think. one question: if the good seer comes out, they most certainly get night killed, yeah? or not, because we’ve decided not to drink, therefore rendering them useless as seer, so it doesn’t matter to the wolves, knowing who it is?
August 29, 2018 at 1:19 pm
mbnovak
I’m not saying “yes, definitely, let’s do this” but that it might outweigh the alternatives and I’d like discussion.
August 29, 2018 at 1:26 pm
beezypoof
fair enough.
August 29, 2018 at 1:27 pm
daneekasghost
Yeah, if vanillagers don’t always accept, the good seer becomes just another villager.
August 29, 2018 at 1:30 pm
mbnovak
But, barring a false seer play, they still get night killed because they’re a confirmed villager.
August 29, 2018 at 12:12 pm
Warhammer
I was certain yesterday that I’d refuse a drink. I’m even more certain today!
August 29, 2018 at 1:23 pm
daneekasghost
The value in a blanket rejection policy is that the seer cannot be found by the wolves. The problem with a blanket rejection policy is that the wolves no longer have to find the seer, since the seer isn’t peeking anymore.
—–
There is 0% chance that the other two wolves accept a drink that they don’t know about. So the good seer wouldn’t ever get confirmation on those two.
But the rejection of the drink is telling, right? It’s not like there’s anyone else out there that would be rejecting drinks (assuming no blanket rejection agreement).
—–
The wolves have two drinks to give. If they treat acceptance of a drink as vanillager confirmation, they can clear or target two villagers per day and whittle down the seer pool kind of quickly.
Of course, if the wolves use it that way, the village can also draw conclusions about drink acceptance. So, more information is available if drinks are accepted, but it seems like that information is pretty much under the wolves’ control.
—–
I’m leaning toward shutting down the drinks. Otherwise we end up in speculation on the wolves’ intent with sketchy information from the seer.
I’d hear other thoughts though, I may have overlooked things.
August 29, 2018 at 1:29 pm
mbnovak
Here’s a thought… if we went to random.org for rejection vs. acceptance, there’s a <50% chance the good seer will get a peek (2 wolves will reject, 1 will accept, and figure 50/50 for the rest of us). The seer won't be able to draw any conclusions from the rejections, since they might be random or wolves. The seer's accepted drink is also now more likely to be the hidden wolf proclaimed as a villager, which causes even more problems for the village.
I'm thinking the danger of a random acceptance is too much?
August 29, 2018 at 1:44 pm
daneekasghost
I think so too. Meanwhile, every acceptance of a wolf drink gives the wolves concrete information.
August 29, 2018 at 1:54 pm
mbnovak
So we’re agreed?
Follow up question is whether the seer should come out or not? I don’t hold a strong opinion on this right now.
August 29, 2018 at 1:55 pm
daneekasghost
You and I agree, yes.
I wonder how many confirmed villagers are out there if we get drink info in the open.
August 29, 2018 at 2:05 pm
mbnovak
Well, if we get drink info out in the open we’ll arguably have just 1 confirmed villager, and that would be the seer. Any info they have could be the hidden wolf, and we’ll really have no idea of the odds on that either, because we don’t know who was and was not accepting drinks, so everyone would have to reveal that stuff too, and then we’re only getting percentages. In short, the only absolute confirmed villager would be the seer themselves.
August 29, 2018 at 2:14 pm
daneekasghost
I guess, since one of the wolves is accepting all drinks, even acceptance doesn’t tell us anything.
Well, there goes that.
August 29, 2018 at 2:21 pm
daneekasghost
seer announces their peek today (if not already sent)?
August 29, 2018 at 12:22 pm
spookymilk
Just woke up. Cripes, gang, this is the worst. The room is spinning and my equilibrium is still somewhat fucked. It’s a lot like being more drunk than at any point prior when I was 18, being consoled and talked through the agony by Anthony Crep in Elisa Pluhar’s bathroom. I mean, right? Guys?
.
.
.
ash10101 voting for meat
beezypoof voting for meat
BigPapaJonTheElf
Colin Prime (1) voting for mbnovak
daneekasghost (1) voting for Colin Prime
The Dread Pirate voting for mbnovak
mbnovak (4) voting for MelissaD
meat (3) voting for mbnovak
MelissaD (1)
nettiebarron voting for daneekasghost
todahshy voting for meat
Warhammer voting for mbnovak
August 29, 2018 at 12:31 pm
beezypoof
Aaaaaand…where’s Melissa today?
August 29, 2018 at 12:32 pm
beezypoof
Or Pope?
August 29, 2018 at 12:40 pm
BigPapaJonTheElf
I’m here and reading. I’ve been fighting a migraine since last night, and it’s making it hard to trust my own analysis.
August 29, 2018 at 12:34 pm
mbnovak
I don’t love meat as the alternative to me right now. Todah, Ash, Beezy, what’s your logic? I know I said he felt different yesterday, and that’s fine and all, but so far it seems like most of you are saying you could see either me or meat, and then you sided with meat… I’ve got 4 votes, meat has 3, and that’s 7 right there to take out one or other of us, and… not a lot of heat getting put anywhere else.
This is not to clear meat in any way, but I don’t see sitting on meat as productive today.
Especially for the three of you, which other candidates are you looking at?
August 29, 2018 at 12:41 pm
meat
Again, my eyes are up here mister. 🍆
August 29, 2018 at 12:41 pm
BigPapaJonTheElf
Hehe, sitting on meat.
August 29, 2018 at 1:00 pm
todahshy
I was suspicious of meat yesterday and continue to be. My suspicions of you have grown now that I’ve caught up (though you are correct we should all reject drinks at this point).
I’m also still suspicious of DG, Melissa and nettie.
Next tier I would probably put Ash, Beezy and Colin.
I’m least wary of Warhammer and DPWY right now.
August 29, 2018 at 1:00 pm
todahshy
Hmmm I forgot BPJTE was even playing… that’s never a good sign.
August 29, 2018 at 1:05 pm
BigPapaJonTheElf
I said it before, but I’ll say it again, “playing” is a very generous description of what I’m doing here.
August 29, 2018 at 1:34 pm
meat
Why is Colin clearer than anyone else? He wasn’t here for a full day…
August 29, 2018 at 1:47 pm
todahshy
I have nothing to go on with him, how can I be suspicious of him yet? I don’t mind killing quiet players in the absence of good leads but I feel we have other good options right now.
August 29, 2018 at 1:45 pm
beezypoof
now i see you protecting meat, and it just seems like more of a connection. i’m also considering you, and Nettie (i’ve been reading more of what she wrote/didn’t write yesterday). I’m not HOOKED on meat, but my vote def stays there for now.
August 29, 2018 at 1:49 pm
mbnovak
It’s not a protection of meat, it’s a call for more wolf hunting.
August 29, 2018 at 12:45 pm
BigPapaJonTheElf
I don’t like Novak as a wolf right now. To be clear, I like Novak as a wolf all the time, I’m just not convinced that he’s a wolf this time.
Meat I don’t know that well, and I’ve only been here during his long villager streak, but I’m wondering what exactly is standing out about his game to those that think he’s a wolf
I think DPWY is a villager. More accurately, I’m assuming that he is at this point, because he looks like he’s hunting. He’s also pretty good at this game, so I’m open to reconsideration.
Annette is either really busy at work, or a wolf. I’m leaning toward the latter.
Where is Melissa?
August 29, 2018 at 12:59 pm
nettiebarron
To be fair, I could be both. However, I am not both and am super busy. I mean, obviously, it’s the end of the month.
You, however, are very suspect.
August 29, 2018 at 1:04 pm
BigPapaJonTheElf
You always suspect me when I suspect you. This gets us nowhere.
August 29, 2018 at 1:16 pm
nettiebarron
I don’t think this is true. Last time I suspected you, you WERE a wolf. So . . .
August 29, 2018 at 1:36 pm
BigPapaJonTheElf
Statistically speaking, I have been a wolf in 100% of the previous games I’ve played. Since I’ve only played once before, that’s a meaningless statistic. More importantly, you got stuck on me in that game because you know me, and you are always suspicious of my behavior, not because you actually saw something in the way I played that was truly wolfy. You just got lucky.
August 29, 2018 at 1:46 pm
nettiebarron
Actually, I peeked you as the Seer. Also, if you’ve only ever been a wolf, why the “you always suspect me when I suspect you.” You are talking in circles, sir, and it is not going unnoticed.
August 29, 2018 at 1:53 pm
BigPapaJonTheElf
Because this is how you play Survivor too! You always suspect that I am up to no good, even though I am often up to good.
Also, I always talk in circles. Don’t act like that’s unusual or that it means anything.
More to the point, you always point the finger back at whoever suggests your name, whether it’s me or somebody else. In that way, you seem very villagery right now. It’s mostly your weird exit and and your lack of availability that makes you seem suspicious to me.
August 29, 2018 at 1:02 pm
beezypoof
there was a vote tally at 3:17 day 1. Todashy had 4 votes. can anyone remember why? i’m reading it all right now, and I don’t see anything.
August 29, 2018 at 1:02 pm
beezypoof
3, i guess. the count was wrong. same question, though?
August 29, 2018 at 1:05 pm
todahshy
I made a joke that people should put votes on me instead of novak and then a few people followed through.
August 29, 2018 at 1:07 pm
beezypoof
that’s silly. is this the only reason, folks?
August 29, 2018 at 1:12 pm
The Dread Pirate
Only reason for my vote on him, yes.
August 29, 2018 at 1:15 pm
mbnovak
Yes. That’s why I was telling you before not to put any weight into meat defending me – it was all based on that joke exchange.
August 29, 2018 at 1:06 pm
beezypoof
DG: yesterday at 3:24, you said that a Novak/Nettie pairing kind of made sense to you. Any reasoning you remember having? I’m interested in more on Nettie. I’ve never played this game with Annette, so I have no read on her game.
August 29, 2018 at 1:10 pm
beezypoof
you also vote Nettie here, and say that it’s your “counterwagon to the Novak wagon.” if you think both Nettie and Novak are wolves, why oh why would there NEED to be a counterwagon to the Novak wagon? which really wasn’t much of a wagon at this point. Novak and Todashy both had 3 votes on them.
August 29, 2018 at 1:17 pm
mbnovak
There doesn’t need to be a counterwagon, but we’re only on day 2, with precious little info to go on, and he’s just putting out another candidate.
August 29, 2018 at 1:28 pm
beezypoof
i’ll hear it from him, i guess.
August 29, 2018 at 1:41 pm
daneekasghost
Creating options means that people have to decide and justify one vote or another. It’s hard for wolves to move around and justify vote changes, so making them think and talk and move exposes them.
August 29, 2018 at 1:57 pm
beezypoof
thanks.
August 29, 2018 at 1:58 pm
beezypoof
but you didn’t answer the question about why Nettie seemed wolfy, and in conjunction with Novak. Thoughts?
August 29, 2018 at 1:59 pm
daneekasghost
The same ones I had yesterday.
Nettie interacted with limited people, which seemed overly cautious and an attempt at hiding while being present. Within that view, she did interact with novak.
August 29, 2018 at 3:09 pm
beezypoof
i noticed this, too. (i’m not through day 1 yet, so apologies for asking you to re-hash if you’d already talked about it later in the day.)
August 29, 2018 at 1:15 pm
nettiebarron
You actually have played with me before, but I’m not offended. I’ve never been very good at it, so you probably didn’t notice.
August 29, 2018 at 1:30 pm
beezypoof
we’ve played werewolf before? well, call my MS brain an idiot (i don’t remember a lot of stuff these days, which also make me a kind of fly by the seat sort of player….i have to make these extensive spreadsheets to even form a thought about it, in fact)!
August 29, 2018 at 1:17 pm
beezypoof
Ash: day 1, from the beginning of the day until 4:00pm, you make only ONE meaningful post, and it’s a response to Inkarnit regarding who your top 3 wolves are. Why was there nothing else from you? That’s 6 hours into the day. you were around, just saying VERY little, and nothing of real consequence.
August 29, 2018 at 1:28 pm
ash10101
There wasn’t much of meaning before that. I also wasn’t around the whole day, there were periods where I had to get things ready for school. But I was more trying to determine who I thought was being somewhat suspicious before I started flinging names around. I don’t like voting randomly
August 29, 2018 at 2:05 pm
beezypoof
there was quite a BIT of game play during that time. i’d suggest going back and reading.
August 29, 2018 at 1:33 pm
meat
Seriously. Novak is a fucking wolf. Look, he’s being “helpful” without actually helping. Classic wolf move.
August 29, 2018 at 1:40 pm
mbnovak
Meat, you gotta get off it. Your tunnel vision here is either terrible villager play or classic wolf.
I’m not a wolf. You find me wolfy, so be it. But even if I am a wolf (which I’m not), there are 2 others out there you should be looking for. Enough other people are focused on you and I together that, if you were a villager, you should be concerned about that, as then they’d be using me to frame you. But you don’t really seem worried about that, which is… crazy.
Also, I am being helpful. I’m discussing with Beezy why she shouldn’t be focused on early day stuff, I’m discussing the roles in a concrete way, I’m looking at people other than the main candidates to try to generate actual traction. Indeed I’m one of only two players looking anywhere outside of the Novak/meat conundrum, and I’m willing to do so at risk to myself because that will help the village.
August 29, 2018 at 1:45 pm
meat
Man, all the innuendo today.
August 29, 2018 at 1:47 pm
mbnovak
In you endo…
I couldn’t resist.
Seriously though, it’s not innuendo, I’m actually doing these things I’m talking about, and I don’t see you doing anything but laser focusing on me.
August 29, 2018 at 1:45 pm
mbnovak
Alright, I think Melissa’s absence is absurd, but no one seems to be paying any attention to that.
I find Colin Prime’s absence to be similarly absurd, particularly given the fact that he, though often busy, usually manages to be around more than this when he is a villager. Look at last game, day 1 and 2. Even when busy he throws out times for posts for us to look at, refers to more specific things, has little quick exchanges too.
So I feel good, for now, with unvote Melissa, Vote Colin Prime
August 29, 2018 at 2:48 pm
beezypoof
many of us have mentioned Melissa’s absence. i also find it absurd. i’m not convinced about her villager status at ALL.
August 29, 2018 at 1:53 pm
daneekasghost
Warhammer is clean.
Read this.
August 29, 2018 at 1:55 pm
todahshy
I saw that too, that’s why I willingly entered his Town Circle (RIP Ink).
August 29, 2018 at 1:55 pm
BigPapaJonTheElf
Oh, snap.
August 29, 2018 at 1:55 pm
todahshy
Thoughts on this: https://spookymilk.wordpress.com/2018/08/29/werewolf-speakeasy-iii-day-two/#comment-88011
August 29, 2018 at 2:13 pm
daneekasghost
I can read it both ways, it does make an assumption of nettie’s role. But, I see novak’s point that it was a response to Colin’s theory.
Your pointing it out didn’t make me any more sure of novak as a wolf.
August 29, 2018 at 2:14 pm
todahshy
Hiss response also came hours later after I posted this link here which is a little un-Novak-like.
August 29, 2018 at 2:15 pm
todahshy
HISSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSS
August 29, 2018 at 2:15 pm
mbnovak
I just missed it earlier. It happens.
August 29, 2018 at 1:56 pm
nettiebarron
Huh. That is compelling.
August 29, 2018 at 1:57 pm
mbnovak
I noticed that earlier, but, given Codefox’s Day 1 suggestion that Warhammer was an old pro at gaming, I’m not completely convinced. And it kind of fits that “outside of the game” thing that I hate relying on.
August 29, 2018 at 1:59 pm
todahshy
I didn’t call attention to it for this very reason. I’m not a fan of drawing attention to that kind of stuff to clear people because then faking lack of rules knowledge will start becoming a thing and that would be dumb and annoying.
August 29, 2018 at 2:52 pm
beezypoof
could this be game play, though? since he’s a newb here, he could be choosing this. i don’t think he is (he feels villager to me otherwise), but just saying it’s also something to think about.
August 29, 2018 at 2:55 pm
mbnovak
Hey beezy, please move ahead to the good stuff below. We need your response!
August 29, 2018 at 3:06 pm
beezypoof
i’m getting there. and i’ll have things to say. don’t tell me how to play, please. i move slowly.
August 29, 2018 at 3:07 pm
mbnovak
Sorry, time is of the essence, I need to respond to the drink.
August 29, 2018 at 3:10 pm
beezypoof
what?
August 29, 2018 at 3:15 pm
mbnovak
You’ll get there below. I apologize for being pushy – I had to respond to a drink that was given to me, and needed to do so within the time frame. Certain claims about you were verifiable, and so I wanted to check in with you first.
We’re all good now, since I can still talk, given the order the drinks came in.
August 29, 2018 at 1:54 pm
todahshy
unvote meat vote BPJtE
I just read your latest list of hunches and you list Annette as a suspect in your mind, but you clear both meat and Novak. Why? And if so, who are your other suspects and why?
August 29, 2018 at 2:04 pm
BigPapaJonTheElf
I didn’t clear them. I mostly talked out loud about what I was seeing. If it seems unhelpful, it’s because everything is unclear to me right now.
Annette’s breezy but grouchy exit last night rang false to me, and I’ve played a lot of games with her. It’s hardly definitive, but it’s the best I’ve got.
I definitely didn’t clear meat. I just asked what it was that was triggering those that thought he was a wolf. I’m not picking up on it, and I want clarification. His tunnel vision on Novak reminds me of previous games that I’ve watched.
Novak might be a wolf. He’s a solid suspect. But he’s around without needing to put pressure on him, and he’s likely to eventually trip up if he’s actually a wolf. I think. He’s good at this game. I just don’t see the need to throw a vote at him right now, since I’m not convinced.
August 29, 2018 at 2:07 pm
todahshy
Anyone other than Annette seem off to you so far?
August 29, 2018 at 2:08 pm
mbnovak
“He’s good at this game” – and right now Inkarnit is wishing he could remind everyone of my awful fake seer player as a wolf that one time.
I’m a decent hunter, not a great wolf.
August 29, 2018 at 2:08 pm
BigPapaJonTheElf
DG is a solid suspect. He feels off. I’m watching him, he’ll slip up eventually if he’s a wolf.
Ash is more engaged this game. That might be a wolf tactic for them, or it might just be a reaction to the accusation that they aren’t around enough.
Melissa is quiet to the point of ridiculousness, and even though it’s not unusual for her to be the least verbose, this feels like a wolf avoiding saying anything incriminating.
I’d say ditto on Colin Prime, but man, I don’t know what that guy is doing at all.
August 29, 2018 at 2:13 pm
todahshy
I’ll admit I rarely have a good read on Colin so I’m taking him at face value right now regarding his house and being busy.
Melissa’s silence while not unusual is definitely more extreme than usual. That might be a good choice for a wolf option but I’m not sure I’m willing to do that today yet.
August 29, 2018 at 2:08 pm
meat
Alright I’m out of pocket for possibly several hours. Real world jobs etc. back in a while.
August 29, 2018 at 2:19 pm
Colin Prime
I’m here and read up. I feel the need to qualify my absence- we just took possession of this house and have till Friday to do a major demo and renovation. I didn’t expect to close until Friday.
So, that said, Novak’s posts today are reading way more villager than yesterday, though I’m annoyed at the role discussion- Novak says role discussion may be pointless and then spends multiple posts debating the efficacy of taking drinks or role claims. Personally I would take a drink if given. One vote or my analysis isn’t going to make much difference on day two or three if I get silenced. If I get peeked I have nothing to lose there either. Rejecting a drink would muddy waters with the seer, in my mind. I understand there is a wolf that appears ass villager to the seer, but that just lowers the percentage of accuracy of the seer, it doesn’t “neuter” the role. Frankly Novak’s debating served more to muddy the waters than to help the village. Which I imagine as intentional given my previous read.
I still see a meat/Novak duo – their banter and meat’s hyper focus reads as wolves playing against each other to gain villager cred when one gets killed and turns up wolf.
I did get a read on beezers, her wolf game is very aggressive and I’m not getting that today.
I don’t have a read on anyone else yet but I’ll have time over lunch to take another look at yesterday’s voting and today.
I’m trying super duper hard not to be jerk colin today, given my stress levels. Please forgive me if I fail.
August 29, 2018 at 2:20 pm
todahshy
We’ll just keep jerk Kelly away from you and you’ll be fine!
August 29, 2018 at 2:27 pm
Melissa D
See, today is a bad day for wolf gaming. The son had appointments this morning, and then it’s team meeting and “constant supervision” day at work. I’ll be on more later. I’ve read halfway through everything, and I’m leaning towards the arguments regarding Novak. The only problem I have, personally, is that Novak always looks like a wolf.
If we look at Novak being wolfy, I would add Beezy to it. She generally agrees with everything he says (so far — though, admittedly, I’m halfway through today’s reading), and it sounds very much like a pair of individuals working together. That can happen with villagers, too, I suppose, but villagers don’t get the benefit of pre-planning this stuff in the middle of the night. We’re sleeping like we’re supposed to. Or we’re being sexy.
The pile on Inkarnit surprised me. I didn’t think people would actually follow my lead on it, and now I feel bad because I also totally thought the game ended at 8pm. So I left and didn’t look again until this morning and was like, “Oh shit.” I do not at all yet understand why that happened. It’s weird and makes me wonder why so much movement went OFF Nettie.
I shall be back after 6pm! Yay!
August 29, 2018 at 2:31 pm
mbnovak
So somewhat hilariously, I’ve been served multiple drinks, and need to respond pretty soon to one of them.
Even more hilariously, I’m thinking of accepting both.
Here’s why. First, obviously at least one of them is a wolf. That means either the wolves want to silence me (because i’m onto them, so I don’t fight back against them, just to be hilarious (and all 3 of these things could apply if I’m a wolf or a villager, so don’t read into it too much)), or they want to know my role. If its a wolf seer peeking me, I’m almost a lock to be a villager (that would be an insanely ballsy move to waste a peek on another wolf). For whatever it’s worth, this whole paragraph applies regardless of whether I say yes or no. We know that the wolves have targetted me for either silence or knowledge, which suggests my villagerness (but isn’t a guarantee of it).
Now, if I say yes, and it was the seer wolf, and I can still talk, then, great, we can prove the seer wolf wanted to know me and that 99% clears me (again, that would be a ballsy move otherwise). If I’m silenced, well, you can’t take everything from that, but it’s something, I suppose.
Second, I know that I’ll only be giving the wolves a single confirmed villager, which, yes, narrows the pool, but not so much.
Third, if the good seer peeked me, then we know they’ll get a *confirmed* (except for the hidden wolf) villager peek who they can put out as a candidate with themselves, essentially clearing two people (themselves and myself, with that small hidden wolf caveat).
Fourth, if the good seer is not someone who peeked me then we know the wolves wanted to know who I am, so I’m mostly cleared, and then the seer can peek someone, that person can accept the peek, and then the seer can reveal that person to be almost certainly clean, plus the seer, plus myself (again, almost certainly).
Does this all make sense? Quick responses are appreciated, since I need to accept drinks soon.
August 29, 2018 at 2:35 pm
daneekasghost
I’m the seer. I peeked meat yesterday and was told he’s a villager.
I also accepted a drink yesterday, and I was the angel protection last night.
I asked to serve beezy this morning, but haven’t heard anything back yet.
Everyone but beezy should reject drinks today and in the future.
August 29, 2018 at 2:36 pm
mbnovak
Beezy, please confirm that you were served a drink.
August 29, 2018 at 2:37 pm
daneekasghost
I don’t know if she has been. I submitted at 10AM but have heard nothing from spooky to confirm that he received it.
August 29, 2018 at 2:41 pm
The Dread Pirate
If spooky is getting them to Novak, then he surely got it to beezy.
August 29, 2018 at 2:42 pm
daneekasghost
Yeah, it’s been 5 hours and I’ve got nothing to show for it. The ice has melted and everything.
August 29, 2018 at 2:44 pm
BigPapaJonTheElf
If Novak has actually been served any drinks, then drinks are going out. Beezy would have been served, and just needs to confirm this. If she does, it proves that –
1) Wolves are after Novak, all but clearing him of being a wolf, and proving that Brooks is the seer.
or
2) This is all a good wolf play by Brooks, Novak, and Beezy.
or
3) Another thing that I haven’t thought of yet.
August 29, 2018 at 2:44 pm
mbnovak
For whatever its worth, and I hate to use this, but I didn’t actually get the messages from Spooky in my inbox where he said he sent them, and he got in touch with me a different way…
So, uh… I don’t know what to make of that.
August 29, 2018 at 3:18 pm
beezypoof
yes, confirmed. my email doesn’t load properly sometimes, and that’s what happened. received at 12:25pm.
August 29, 2018 at 3:22 pm
mbnovak
Cool. You should probably accept it then if you’re a villager, so that we can have 4 confirmed* villagers (DG, meat, you, me).
*obviously there’s the hidden wolf and the minuscule chance that I’m making an insane play. Either way, we know at least 2 of the 4 would be 100% clean.
August 29, 2018 at 2:37 pm
mbnovak
meat, please confirm that you accepted a drink from a seer yesterday.
August 29, 2018 at 2:38 pm
nettiebarron
Meat said he was out of pocket for a few hours.
August 29, 2018 at 2:38 pm
mbnovak
Craps.
August 29, 2018 at 2:37 pm
mbnovak
Wolf DG makes this play too, right? Then the real seer would need to come out too.
August 29, 2018 at 2:43 pm
daneekasghost
Who knows what wolf DG would do? That guy’s crazy
August 29, 2018 at 2:38 pm
mbnovak
If this is true, I’m an (all but) confirmed villager, since it would be the two wolves who served me.
August 29, 2018 at 2:39 pm
daneekasghost
the two drinks you have are from wolves.
August 29, 2018 at 2:39 pm
todahshy
Or a crazy Novak scheme…
August 29, 2018 at 2:40 pm
mbnovak
It would be an insane freaking scheme. Hilariously brilliant. Probably easily testable.
August 29, 2018 at 2:39 pm
mbnovak
Indeed, if this is true I don’t need to accept the drinks to achieve the desired results, since the fourth thing is true up there, and we can get another confirmed player if beezy accepts.
August 29, 2018 at 2:40 pm
nettiebarron
Couldn’t this also be a wolf play? To falsely clear yourself?
August 29, 2018 at 2:41 pm
todahshy
Mmmm Hmmmmmm
Crazy theories/plays = wolf Novak
August 29, 2018 at 2:43 pm
mbnovak
Hypothetically, sure. But realistically… probably not. And probably testable down the road. I haven’t played it all out yet.
August 29, 2018 at 2:45 pm
todahshy
Interesting that Novak wanted to shut drinks down after meat accepted the seer drink. Could it be because the trap was laid and meat really is the wolf who gets spotted as villager? Or all just a crazy coincidence?
Then Novak wants to accept drinks after spending gobs of our time convincing all of us to reject them knowing that only the seer’s drink would be offered to someone other than him?
Man my conspiracy theory brain is going into overload right now.
August 29, 2018 at 2:48 pm
mbnovak
Occams Razor man.
August 29, 2018 at 6:17 pm
meat
I took the drink yesterday. Not today when the conversation happened.
August 29, 2018 at 2:47 pm
todahshy
You accepted the drink as the seer?!1
August 29, 2018 at 4:44 pm
daneekasghost
I sure did. Fortune favors the bold. (+2 out of 3 outcomes were good)
August 29, 2018 at 4:45 pm
todahshy
Silencing was a “good” option?!
August 29, 2018 at 4:46 pm
daneekasghost
If the wolves know that I accepted a drink, they are much much less likely to believe I’m the seer, right?
August 29, 2018 at 4:48 pm
todahshy
You are wise beyond your years.
August 29, 2018 at 4:49 pm
daneekasghost
I may have also witnessed firsthand what happens to roled players that refuse drinks…
August 29, 2018 at 4:49 pm
todahshy
😦
August 29, 2018 at 2:38 pm
The Dread Pirate
I say, “Chug!!!”
August 29, 2018 at 2:42 pm
Warhammer
I agree…it at least makes the post count more feasible for me to follow if you’re silenced.
August 29, 2018 at 2:39 pm
Warhammer
It’s an awfully good cop out making people assume you were silenced so therefore must be a villager. Silencing is as simple as not talking anymore…
August 29, 2018 at 2:40 pm
mbnovak
Hi, I’m Matt. Nice to meet you.
August 29, 2018 at 2:47 pm
mbnovak
Alright, here’s the next thought. If DG is telling the truth, there’s no harm to me accepting both wolf drinks. I’ll be silenced. Thus it is imperative that every other villager talk tonight in order to confirm that no one else is silenced.
August 29, 2018 at 2:55 pm
ash10101
This seems like a good point.
August 29, 2018 at 2:56 pm
The Dread Pirate
Won’t it depend on the order? If the first drink is there silencer, you should be back immediately after you drink the second.
August 29, 2018 at 2:58 pm
mbnovak
Ahh yeah, I missed that. It would depend on order then.
August 29, 2018 at 2:59 pm
mbnovak
Still no one else could be silenced, so it’s still important that others talk.
August 29, 2018 at 2:54 pm
mbnovak
Alright, assuming we won’t get confirmation from beezy or meat before I need to respond…
If DG is telling the truth, there is no harm in me accepting both, being silenced, and then everyone in the village make sure you talk to tonight to confirm someone else wasn’t silenced. Villagers have no reason to fake being silenced, but wolves would (because it would make me more of a target, despite being almost certainly a village), so if someone doesn’t talk that would suggest there is a wolf there.
If DG is not telling the truth, then that means the real seer is probably peeking me (I guess not necessarily… it could still be the evil seer), but then the good seer should probably reveal themselves, in order to out DG, but do so after their peek for the day is responded to (and villagers should respond affirmatively to a peek today, but not after today, yes?).
Okay, that’s my thought process. I’m gonna move my vote and then respond shortly after 3. Anyone else have thoughts?
August 29, 2018 at 2:56 pm
todahshy
Wolves: Please confirm that you served Novak drinks.
August 29, 2018 at 3:01 pm
ash10101
This is certainly a great hunting method and I am sure we will find a wolf through it. Totally.
August 29, 2018 at 3:07 pm
mbnovak
unvote Colin Prime
Vote DPWY
I don’t have any specific reason for this vote, except that I know I wasn’t on DPWY at any point today, so there is 0 chance the wolves were trying to get me locked in on him via silencing. And also I think he seems a little wolfy, but mostly that’s his general disagreement with me regarding the roles thing.
August 29, 2018 at 3:08 pm
mbnovak
Alright, screw it, good luck village!
August 29, 2018 at 3:09 pm
mbnovak
::puts shot glass to lips::
August 29, 2018 at 3:14 pm
mbnovak
Best silencing ever.
First one was silence, second one was seer. I’m free!
August 29, 2018 at 3:16 pm
Melissa D
Wait wait wait.
I’m the seer. I served the drink to Novak. He accepted it. He’s the villager.
DG, what the fuck?
August 29, 2018 at 3:17 pm
todahshy
*gets popcorn*
August 29, 2018 at 3:23 pm
mbnovak
Pass that over.
August 29, 2018 at 3:25 pm
ash10101
I’ll take some of that. This is gonna be interesting. Is there any way to like prove which one is real?
August 29, 2018 at 3:33 pm
The Dread Pirate
Yes. Voting.
August 29, 2018 at 3:21 pm
The Dread Pirate
And who did you see day one?
August 29, 2018 at 3:22 pm
The Dread Pirate
Just saw the comment below. Fannnnnnnntastic.
August 29, 2018 at 3:22 pm
Melissa D
See below.
August 29, 2018 at 3:17 pm
Melissa D
I didn’t think I’d be back, and clearly DG didn’t either. Way to use my absence. -_-
August 29, 2018 at 3:19 pm
Melissa D
Side note, I didn’t peek anyone yesterday because I was gone all day and forgot. I’m pretty sure Wolfson is cursing me from the grave. As he will be doing in real life one day.
August 29, 2018 at 3:23 pm
beezypoof
what just happened? this is all super confusing to me. i just accepted the drink. cuz people said i should. we’ll see.
August 29, 2018 at 3:24 pm
mbnovak
It’s really a non-issue now, since one way or the other the seer is out (assuming Melissa and DG aren’t both fake seering).
August 29, 2018 at 3:25 pm
ash10101
What possible reason would they have to BOTH fake seer ?
August 29, 2018 at 3:28 pm
mbnovak
Column A: shits. Column B: giggles.
August 29, 2018 at 3:31 pm
ash10101
Ah. Reasonable.
August 29, 2018 at 3:25 pm
beezypoof
how do we know who to believe? both DG and Melissa could be lying, yeah?
August 29, 2018 at 3:26 pm
mbnovak
Small chance, but yes. But then we just lynch them both.
For today, it’s just a guess between the two.
August 29, 2018 at 3:27 pm
beezypoof
i meant one or the other is. i stated that poorly.
August 29, 2018 at 3:24 pm
mbnovak
Well clearly we need to vote for either DG or Melissa tonight.
August 29, 2018 at 3:25 pm
Melissa D
DG
Though I guess Novak could be one of the wolves that pops up as “vanillager” when drinking my drinks. At this point, though, I’m just going to assume “vanillager” is what he is.
If I’m lying about all this, then I’m fucking over Novak hardcore, by the way. If you all lynch me based off DG’s lie, then Novak is going to look super wolfy since I’m supporting him despite having said, only awhile back, that I was convinced he’s a wolf. It wouldn’t make sense for me, as a wolf to lie about this.
If you decide to lynch me, though, I suppose that’s not the worse thing I the world. I’ll be eaten by wolves tonight anyway since our Angel Wolfson (that sounds so gross) was killed. I would suggest not doing that because we’d be down way more villagers.
August 29, 2018 at 3:25 pm
The Dread Pirate
unvote mbnovak
August 29, 2018 at 3:25 pm
mbnovak
Unvote DPWY
Vote DG
Because if Melissa is making that play, she deserves to be rewarded with an extra day, despite her deserving to be punished because of missing sending a drink.
August 29, 2018 at 3:27 pm
Melissa D
Oops.
Vote DG
I hate so much that I’m going to have to leave again here.
August 29, 2018 at 3:27 pm
todahshy
I guess this all hinges on meat showing up at this point.
August 29, 2018 at 3:28 pm
mbnovak
Assuming that DG is a seer, not really. People who accept drinks just get told they were viewed by a seer, not which one.
August 29, 2018 at 3:41 pm
meat
I’m here for a hot second.
August 29, 2018 at 3:42 pm
todahshy
Did you get served a drink yesterday?
August 29, 2018 at 3:28 pm
beezypoof
i’ve had a response. but someone else needs to tell everyone what the response was.
August 29, 2018 at 3:31 pm
beezypoof
wait, no. Melissa’s the wolf. DG said he served me, and I confirmed that I’d received a drink. response said that my role would be revealed to seer, which he stated he was. which means he’s a seer. my logic is correct here, yeah?
August 29, 2018 at 3:32 pm
ash10101
Does the wolf seer also show up as a seer to the person served?
August 29, 2018 at 3:33 pm
beezypoof
you didn’t say you served me, Melissa.
August 29, 2018 at 3:34 pm
todahshy
There are two seers: one is a wolf and one is a villager. So you could have been served by DG as a seer but he could still be a wolf.
August 29, 2018 at 3:38 pm
beezypoof
OOOOHHHH! I see. sad, here i thought i had it. 😦
August 29, 2018 at 3:34 pm
The Dread Pirate
Yes
August 29, 2018 at 3:34 pm
beezypoof
she didn’t say she served me. if she was the seer, she would have, since she said she’d served Novak (after he’d already posted that he’d been served).
August 29, 2018 at 3:36 pm
The Dread Pirate
That’s because she didn’t serve you. You were served by DG, the other seer.
August 29, 2018 at 3:38 pm
beezypoof
the ACTUAL seer, don’t you mean?
August 29, 2018 at 3:29 pm
mbnovak
Alright, I’ve got to go do some real work for a bit…
August 29, 2018 at 3:32 pm
beezypoof
unvote meat
vote Melissa
August 29, 2018 at 3:34 pm
todahshy
SO we know Melissa served Novak, who was the other person who served him?
August 29, 2018 at 4:20 pm
mbnovak
The silencer wolf, who served me first. That person has no incentive to claim having served me…
August 29, 2018 at 4:22 pm
todahshy
Matt… come on…
August 29, 2018 at 4:24 pm
mbnovak
Yeah… sorry. I was just coming back in and getting caught up and posted it without realizing the sarcasm.
August 29, 2018 at 3:35 pm
The Dread Pirate
Anyone else want to claim they accepted the angel’s drink yesterday?
August 29, 2018 at 3:36 pm
beezypoof
how does this figure in? as in, why do we not believe DG? he said he served me (i was served), Melissa did not.
August 29, 2018 at 3:39 pm
The Dread Pirate
Read the Red Devil and Green Eyes roles at the top here: https://spookymilk.wordpress.com/2018/08/28/werewolf-speakeasy-iii-day-one/
You were told you were seen by a seer, but you don’t know which one.
August 29, 2018 at 3:35 pm
beezypoof
would the bartender who serves the silencer bevvie admit that?
August 29, 2018 at 3:36 pm
todahshy
No heh, I’m just joking around.
August 29, 2018 at 3:37 pm
ash10101
Isn’t that one a wolf?
August 29, 2018 at 3:37 pm
beezypoof
that’s what i think.
August 29, 2018 at 3:36 pm
todahshy
SPARE MELISSA AND DG
I’M THE REAL FAKE SEER!!!
August 29, 2018 at 3:37 pm
beezypoof
ALSO! Melissa disappears again RIGHT after I say i accepted the drink.
August 29, 2018 at 3:39 pm
ash10101
I’m so confused right now
August 29, 2018 at 3:39 pm
meat
unvote Novak
August 29, 2018 at 3:40 pm
The Dread Pirate
Were you peeked yesterday?
August 29, 2018 at 4:00 pm
todahshy
I’ve got a bad feeling about this…
August 29, 2018 at 3:40 pm
Warhammer
Someone want to talk me through why Novak and Melissa aren’t two of the three wolves here. This whole back and forth isn’t a whole lot of convincing to me. Seems like an easy position to take from Novak…. particularly if he’s the silence causing wolf.
August 29, 2018 at 3:42 pm
todahshy
I got a rule clarification from Kelly, bartenders cannot serve themselves so Novak cannot be the silencer. The only one he could be (if he indeed did get two drinks) would be the one who shows as villager when peeked.
August 29, 2018 at 4:07 pm
todahshy
Assuming of course he was served the silencer beverage but no one has yet appeared to say they were offered anything so I am assuming he was.
August 29, 2018 at 3:40 pm
beezypoof
gah, i’m the stupidest.
August 29, 2018 at 3:41 pm
beezypoof
so I have to leave in five minutes to go collect those toddlers from their daycare. i’ll be with them (but will TRY to sneak little peeks here) until their bedtime at 7:00. Which is much better than 7:30, which i thought was their bedtime. sorry to have to be away.
August 29, 2018 at 3:44 pm
The Dread Pirate
If we choose incorrectly tonight, Red Devil is going to have to work really hard to top codefox’s day as an outed wolf from the repair drone game.
August 29, 2018 at 3:47 pm
ash10101
What happened that game?
August 29, 2018 at 3:50 pm
todahshy
What a weird game: Angel doesn’t role claim
Seer doesn’t peek
Multiple seer claims
Silenced non-silenced people
Total chaos
I love werewolf!
August 29, 2018 at 4:01 pm
spookymilk
Dogs and cats living together; mass hysteria!
August 29, 2018 at 4:07 pm
BigPapaJonTheElf
Vote daneekasghost
Things got real weird here today. If he’s not a wolf, then Melissa is. I’m choosing Brooks.
August 29, 2018 at 4:07 pm
todahshy
He’s BUSSING!
August 29, 2018 at 4:13 pm
BigPapaJonTheElf
Can you explain this to me? Bussing whom and how?
Explain it to me like I’m a five year old who is also kind of slow.
August 29, 2018 at 4:22 pm
todahshy
You are throwing DG under the bus to appear to be a villager when you are in fact the third wolf!
August 29, 2018 at 4:29 pm
BigPapaJonTheElf
Ah, gotcha. And you would not think this if I selected Melissa as my target? It’s an interesting theory, but it’s not correct, and will give the wolves the win.
August 29, 2018 at 4:33 pm
todahshy
I’m willing to bet the third wolf (if my leading theory is correct and it is DG and meat as th eother two) is currently voting for DG.
That leaves Melissa and Novak who in this theory would not be an option.
Which finally leaves you and annette. I can convince myself of either of you, Annette for her game yesterday and you have triggered me a bit as the day has gone on and this vote just seems the most wolfish right now.
August 29, 2018 at 4:46 pm
mbnovak
I like your thought here, Todah, except for the meat part. I don’t see DG throwing that peek away like that, right?
August 29, 2018 at 4:57 pm
The Dread Pirate
But if meat is also a wolf, then DG didn’t need to peek him. He just had to say he did and hope meat would confirm. Something that could have been discussed last night.
August 29, 2018 at 5:01 pm
mbnovak
But then presumably he would have peeked someone else.
Which could also be Ink or Codefox, just like with Melissa.
Crap.
August 29, 2018 at 4:12 pm
meat
If we don’t choose right first we’ll lose a confirmed villager as the night kill.
August 29, 2018 at 4:08 pm
meat
I was served a drink yesterday, and was told a seer knows that I’m a vanillager.
I’m not sure who I’m inclined to believe. I can’t get a read on Melissa, but would t put it past dg to fake role claim to hide the remaining wolves.
August 29, 2018 at 4:09 pm
meat
What’s the vote count?
August 29, 2018 at 4:09 pm
spookymilk
Your late afternoon update.
.
.
.
ash10101 voting for meat
beezypoof voting for MelissaD
BigPapaJonTheElf (1) voting for daneekasghost
Colin Prime (1) voting for mbnovak
daneekasghost (4) voting for Colin Prime
The Dread Pirate
mbnovak (2) voting for daneekasghost
meat (1)
MelissaD (1) voting for daneekasghost
nettiebarron voting for daneekasghost
todahshy voting for BigPapaJonTheElf
Warhammer voting for mbnovak
Seven’s a majority. Five hours.
August 29, 2018 at 4:09 pm
meat
Ask and ye shall receive
August 29, 2018 at 4:11 pm
todahshy
I currently believe Melissa over DG but I don’t want to vote until I hear from him.
August 29, 2018 at 4:13 pm
ash10101
I’m leaning towards DG, but what I dont get is why he would randomly claim today like that idk
August 29, 2018 at 4:19 pm
The Dread Pirate
Ok, at this point a meat/DG pairing is making a whole lot more sense than a Melissa/Novak pairing.
August 29, 2018 at 4:21 pm
todahshy
Yepperooni.
August 29, 2018 at 4:23 pm
meat
I pair well with red wine.
August 29, 2018 at 4:35 pm
mbnovak
Why would wolf DG waste his peek on meat? A pure credibility play just in case someone gets served multiple drinks like I did today? That’s… well, that’d be impressive, but I think less likely.
I’m willing to give meat a pass for a while. Meanwhile, the fact that you didn’t see that and are still putting together the pairing is making me smell you…
August 29, 2018 at 4:33 pm
mbnovak
Alright, assuming DG is the wolf…
Meat could be the hidden wolf (DG said peeked vanillager), but presumably DG would actually use his peek, not throw it away that way. So if DG is the wolf, I’m inclined to say meat is clean. We also know that Melissa and I are clean if DG is the wolf.
—-
If Melissa is the wolf…
DG is clean, I’m clean, and meat has been peeked as clean, and we don’t know about Beezy yet (but I’m assuming from her reactions here that she’s clean too. That’s top-notch acting if you’re wolfy Beezy).
August 29, 2018 at 4:38 pm
todahshy
If DG is a wolf seer why did he accept a drink from Ink?
August 29, 2018 at 4:38 pm
todahshy
There’s a lot of actions here that don’t seem to make much sense to me right now.
August 29, 2018 at 4:43 pm
mbnovak
I agree. But given that, as of right now, no one else is saying “hey, I got served a drink on day 1” we have no basis for disproving these claims.
As of right now, DG is claiming he was 1. Served an angel drink on day 1, peeked meat on day 1, peeked beezy today. We know meat was peeked day 1, beezy today, and we have no one saying they were the angel drink on day 1, or anyone saying they refused a drink.
We also have Melissa claiming she 1. Didn’t serve a drink on day 1, served me today. We know I was served today by 1 seer, not the other. We also don’t have anyone else saying they were served on day 1. Basically, we have 2 drinks served on day 1, and they both involved DG. Neither is disprovable as of now, and the fact that only 2 were served total tends to bolster Melissa’s story of failing to serve one.
August 29, 2018 at 4:39 pm
mbnovak
If DG is a seer at all, why did he accept a drink from Ink? It makes more sense as a wolf seer (50/50 it’s the angel) than it does as village seer (1/3 it’s the angel).
August 29, 2018 at 4:40 pm
todahshy
I don’t think it makes sense either way personally much like serving a fellow wolf wouldn’t make much sense unless you were going for a long con?
August 29, 2018 at 4:52 pm
daneekasghost
I replied to todah above.
It was 2/3 good outcome for me.
If I’m silenced, the wolves know I’m accepting drinks – probably not the seer.
If I’m protected, then I don’t die day 1/night 1.
If I’m peeked by the wolf seer, then I’m dead. If I reject, then I’m dead.
So really, once I received the offer, accepting was the only correct move.
August 29, 2018 at 4:42 pm
daneekasghost
Hi. I’m back.
Beezy is a villager.
August 29, 2018 at 4:58 pm
mbnovak
I’m just putting this here… if DG is, in fact, the good seer, then we know with certainty that either one of meat or Beezy is a villager.
August 29, 2018 at 6:55 pm
beezypoof
correct
August 29, 2018 at 6:55 pm
beezypoof
(i’m the villager)
August 29, 2018 at 4:44 pm
todahshy
Was anyone else offered a drink the past two days? Knowing all the outstanding offers whether accepted or rejected can also help us corroborate Melissa’s story that she did not offer a drink yesterday.
Though I suppose she could have offered Ink or code a drink and just went with an explanation that would make her seem more villagery to everyone?
August 29, 2018 at 4:50 pm
todahshy
He’s back for 8 minutes and he has already won me over…
August 29, 2018 at 4:53 pm
daneekasghost
/sharpens canines
August 29, 2018 at 4:57 pm
mbnovak
Seriously.
Except that I don’t see wolf-Melissa missing sending a drink.
August 29, 2018 at 4:58 pm
daneekasghost
Maybe she’s not telling the truth?
August 29, 2018 at 4:59 pm
mbnovak
Then someone (unless it was Codefox and/or Inkarnit) should be able to verify they received a drink.
Of course, if Codefox got one, and refused it, that would explain his night kill.
Crap.
August 29, 2018 at 5:00 pm
todahshy
Yeah and it is much less damning to say you “forgot” to submit a drink than to say you served it to the day or night kill.
August 29, 2018 at 4:59 pm
daneekasghost
I mean, wolves have lied to us before.
August 29, 2018 at 4:59 pm
The Dread Pirate
I don’t see any villager-seer missing sending a drink either, but here we are…
August 29, 2018 at 4:59 pm
mbnovak
Yeah. Acknowledged.
August 29, 2018 at 5:01 pm
ash10101
I don’t see ANY seer missing a drink but here we are
August 29, 2018 at 5:02 pm
todahshy
I don’t think a seer missed a drink…so there I am!
August 29, 2018 at 5:04 pm
ash10101
Then what do you think happened haha.
August 29, 2018 at 5:01 pm
daneekasghost
vote: Melissa
August 29, 2018 at 5:06 pm
mbnovak
Well, my vote is currently on DG.
It should be on one of the two, and I really don’t know which. Melissa smacked of wolf to me for her absence earlier. Something about DG in the discussion of roles and accepting or rejecting stood out too… he was too deferential maybe? I dunno.
Honestly, I feel kind of silly not knowing which of the two it is. But I’ve gotta go to the kids’ open house for school, and I’m going to be AFK, and I’m gonna keep my vote parked on DG for now, as I don’t have a specific reason to clear him, and I… feel better about Melissa fooling me than I do DG fooling me? No, that’s not right either. They’re both jerks, whatever the outcome, for toying with my heart.
August 29, 2018 at 5:06 pm
todahshy
vote Melissa
I find her not sending a drink far less believable. And if she was a seer who didn’t serve us a drink then I don’t think she will add much to the village anyway.
August 29, 2018 at 5:08 pm
nettiebarron
This was so much easier when I faked seer claimed. These guys are doing it wrong.
August 29, 2018 at 5:11 pm
todahshy
But then why would Melissa even claim???
There was no reason for her to make a claim at all if she is the wolf seer. UGGGGGGHHHHH
August 29, 2018 at 5:17 pm
ash10101
I don’t get why either claim how they did if they’re a wolf. Today is just bizzare
August 29, 2018 at 5:31 pm
daneekasghost
Melissa claiming threw my claim under suspicion. That’s the only benefit I see.
August 29, 2018 at 6:00 pm
MelissaD
It threw it under suspicion because YOU’RE A WOLF. A wolf who presumed I wasn’t coming back in time and threw a fake seer claim out. There was a chance a lynch happened before I even returned to call you out.
Side note to the naysayers, I’m pretty well known for doofus moves like not requesting a drink on day one. I’d do it as a wolf or a villager. I’d be less likely to forget as a wolf because I would’ve already coordinated seer picks with the wolf team. I forgot this time because I had no one to remind me or plan it with me, so villager me totally forgot.
August 29, 2018 at 7:54 pm
The Dread Pirate
There was NO chance someone was getting lynched this afternoon based on DG’s claim. A move like that and the village will always take time to digest, although for a competing claim, and verify.
August 29, 2018 at 6:57 pm
beezypoof
to place suspicion on DG, that’s why she would claim as a wolf.
August 29, 2018 at 5:13 pm
todahshy
But then I read that and I immediately want to lynch her tonight…
August 29, 2018 at 5:30 pm
spookymilk
It’s about 5:30.
.
.
.
ash10101 voting for meat
beezypoof voting for MelissaD
BigPapaJonTheElf voting for daneekasghost
Colin Prime voting for mbnovak
daneekasghost (4) voting for MelissaD
The Dread Pirate
mbnovak (2) voting for daneekasghost
meat (1)
MelissaD (3) voting for daneekasghost
nettiebarron voting for daneekasghost
todahshy voting for MelissaD
Warhammer voting for mbnovak
I have my podcast to do tonight. I’ll be sparse between 7 and 8, and then gone from 8 to 9, so if no majority is reached before then, I’ll need a hand. The podcast usually gets done at about 9:30 or 10, so I’ll post the result then unless Inkarnit is around, and wants to.
This is all meaningless if a majority is reached early, of course.
August 29, 2018 at 5:33 pm
daneekasghost
Responding to the doubts of my peek of meat.
I cleared meat several times yesterday after serving him, trying to leave hints.
August 29, 2018 at 6:08 pm
meat
but clearing me only indicates that you know I’m a villager, not that you’re the actual seer.
August 29, 2018 at 7:55 pm
The Dread Pirate
I went back and only saw one “clearing” of him. Care to share for my apparently poor reading comprehension?
August 29, 2018 at 8:24 pm
daneekasghost
I put him first on one list as a villager with no evidence.
I made a more blatant “meat is clean” post as well, which I assume is the one you saw.
August 29, 2018 at 5:38 pm
todahshy
Alrighty I need to get ready to fly to Florida for a wedding tonight. I may be able to check in from the airport (my flight leaves at 9 central so I won’t be here for the final bell).
I am staying on Melissa. I don’t even know what to believe at this point. Hopefully this lynch will make things clear for whoever survives to tomorrow.
August 29, 2018 at 5:49 pm
BigPapaJonTheElf
Shit. Melissa’s a wolf, isn’t she? So’s Novak. Hang on, it’s hard to think because I’m still fighting a migraine, but Novak claims to have been served two drinks. Then Brooks makes his seer claim. Novak turns to his wolfy friend Melissa, and tells her to claim, knowing it will muddy the water.
Does that make sense? No, seriously, does it? I can’t make heads or tails of this day.
August 29, 2018 at 5:51 pm
daneekasghost
I don’t think Novak is a wolf at this point. Too many easily disprovable claims have been made by him.
August 29, 2018 at 6:03 pm
MelissaD
PS. DG knows Novak isn’t a wolf because I just stated aloud that I’m the seer and I saw that Novak is Vanillager. This is not a great “I’m hunting right now” claim.
August 29, 2018 at 6:10 pm
nettiebarron
There is one wolf who will appear to the seer as a villager.
August 29, 2018 at 6:02 pm
MelissaD
When would he have turned to me to request a seer claim? Are wolves allowed to talk outside the game during the day? Because that’s a major rule change.
August 29, 2018 at 6:14 pm
BigPapaJonTheElf
You might have planned it in advance. Or have telepathic wolf powers. Or maybe I just have a headache and can’t think clearly. OR MAYBE THE WOLVES GAVE ME A HEADACHE SO I CAN’T THINK CLEARLY.
August 29, 2018 at 6:31 pm
BigPapaJonTheElf
I’m just struggling with the fact that Brooks always seems wolfy, and the fact that you seem wolfier than usual. I don’t know which way to go here. It’s definitely one of you. Without finding a smoking gun, I have to go with my heart. And my heart is telling me that my friend Melissa is a wolf, and always has been, and somewhere deep down I knew that and I’ve been ignoring it.
August 29, 2018 at 6:34 pm
nettiebarron
What if it’s both of them? What if they planned this together? We’re supposed to lynch Melissa tonight, find out she’s a wolf and then clear DG . . . who will then go on to eat us all.
I mean, it could happen.
August 29, 2018 at 6:43 pm
ash10101
This doesn’t seem too absurd actually, though I’d be Really surprised if this was it
August 29, 2018 at 6:50 pm
The Dread Pirate
Well since everyone up above basically said they were going to stop accepting drinks today, it seems silly for a third seer (the real one) to stay quiet to buy an extra day
August 29, 2018 at 6:21 pm
meat
you fools don’t have real jobs, do you? I’m going to be cooking, and eating, and getting my better half ready to have her wisdom teeth out tomorrow so… real life.
Why would melissa counter claim? That’s the sticky wicket for me. Wouldn’t the smarter wolf play be letting the village sort out someone to lynch at random today, night kill DG and leave me suspiciously alive on day 3?
I’m being set up as the wolf hiding in plain sight, but I’m not a wolf.
I have to go to the store. I’ll be back.
August 29, 2018 at 7:01 pm
The Dread Pirate
Maybe she’s not even the wolf seer. As DG points out, all the info she has provided would be have been known to a wolf who isn’t a seer at the time of her claim.
August 29, 2018 at 7:14 pm
meat
That still doesn’t answer the question. Why would a wolf out themselves with no reason to?
August 29, 2018 at 7:21 pm
daneekasghost
One of us did. Does it make sense for a wolf to come out first, knowing the real seer is out there?
Or that they came out second when they could have stayed quiet?
August 29, 2018 at 7:30 pm
The Dread Pirate
I hope Dr. Chop has a quick and painless recovery.
August 29, 2018 at 8:33 pm
meat
me too.
August 29, 2018 at 6:44 pm
nettiebarron
I’m about to leave to go catch my boat. It is highly unlikely I make it back online in time to be of any use. (As if I would be.) I’m leaving my vote on DG. In Melissa’s defense, I have seen her forget she’s playing werewolf multiple times.
I take that back. It is not in her defense, because I really don’t know if she’s a wolf or not. It is just a fact I know about her.
August 29, 2018 at 6:45 pm
daneekasghost
So many people are just scared of being tricked by me. I came out and offered several verified claims. I didn’t do this to target anyone, just to provide the info that I have to the village.
Melissa comes out, knowing already that Novak has drinks in front of him and says “oh yeah, that was me. My other peek … I don’t have one.”
And because it’s big, bad DG, somehow this is reasonable.
Look at the results of the claims and tell me who is achieving a wolf-goal right now.
August 29, 2018 at 6:56 pm
MelissaD
Stop pulling the whole “I’m super amazing so everybody fears and loves me” card. For one, it’s clear everyone fears and loves ME just as much. Second, my first point isn’t true. Third, I applaud how well you use my natural weaknesses. Fourth, you’re a wolf.
The hard part is that the wolf seer (namely you) gets legitimate peeks. So your peeks are as right as my villager peeks. It’s even more complicated by the fact that one wolf looks like a villager. So my peek of Novak as the vanillager could turn out to exonerate a wolf. Or your peeks of Beezy and Meat could be wrong. So the claims themselves still have to be hashed out and don’t work to clear either of us.
It’s a ridicule move for a wolf seer to claim AFTER a villager does. I put myself up for death either today/tonight or tomorrow by claiming. There’s no way i live much longer. As a wolf, giving myself that death sentence by claiming second would be stupid.
August 29, 2018 at 6:57 pm
MelissaD
*ridiculous
August 29, 2018 at 7:05 pm
beezypoof
i said the same…she already knew Matt had drinks.
August 29, 2018 at 7:10 pm
beezypoof
Damn, I’m confused. Novak makes reasonable claims. i almost ALWAYS think Novak’s claims are reasonable. someday i’m gonna get kicked in the ass by following what he says, and that day might be today. i still think Novak MAY be a wolf.
i still think meat IS a wolf.
i just don’t know whether they’re working with DG, Melissa, or Nettie. (Presumably DG or Melissa.)
I still think Nettie COULD be a wolf.
Right now, I feel like all I know is that i’m not. and because my role was seen, i could be up for night kill, too. but prolly not more than Melissa or DG, whichever is the good seer.
August 29, 2018 at 7:21 pm
The Dread Pirate
The good seer won’t be around tomorrow. We either choose wrong and lynch the good seer tonight, or we choose correctly and wolves lynch the good seer overnight.
Having said that, DG besides Melissa who else do you suspect? She gave us a list; I would like one from you before nightfall, too, because you’ll otherwise be taking it to the grave if you’re the good seer.
August 29, 2018 at 8:05 pm
daneekasghost
Colin – he’s put out strange theories (Novak and meat together as a wolf bus driving fleet) and repeated them in the face of contradictory evidence. Plus his last comment here was almost putting a vote down for the wolf, but holding off.
Ash – seems to be constantly playing the “no one knows what’s going on!” card in comments. I know he is often slow to vote and analyze, but it seems like another level.
Nettie – Based mostly on the way she is reading the Melissa/DG situation right now. Plus she focused really immediately on those that rradoned against her on day 1 (me).
August 29, 2018 at 8:10 pm
The Dread Pirate
Thanks. Besides beezy and meat, anyone else you think is really clean?
August 29, 2018 at 7:34 pm
Colin Prime
I’ve read up for today and looked back over yesterday again. I have to be fast and am still on my phone (we get internet tomorrow!) so hopefully this makes some sense
Thoughts:
Re: DG, Melissa, Novak claims.
1) it fits my knowledge of Novak’s wolf style to use tactics like this. When he’s a wolf he likes to strategize more than see how the game develops. I can see setting up this play given how convenient it is to claim “oh I was silenced and ok I actually got two drinks so now I’m not silenced look I’m a villager!” However, I can see that only through my crazy lenses. It’s way more likely that he’s telling the truth.
2) between melissa and DG I’m more inclined to believe DG, Given the arguments presented. I fully understand busy, but not doing a night 1 peek as the seer seems really off to me.
However, reading their arguments I get more of a manipulative tone from DG and a more plaintive tone from Melissa. That said I get chewed out a lot for reading things intuitively (mostly by spooky when he’s a wolf)
It seems more likely that melissa is a wolf given the facts.
For now unvote Novak
August 29, 2018 at 7:42 pm
beezypoof
i agree with this regarding Novak. and i also take shit for reading things intuitively. like when i’d pinned BOTH wolves in a two-wolf game on day one (intuitively), and no one believed me and we lost.
August 29, 2018 at 7:58 pm
The Dread Pirate
Don’t forget to vote tonight!
August 29, 2018 at 8:54 pm
Colin Prime
Yep I’m here I’m just not sure between Melissa and dg
August 29, 2018 at 7:49 pm
beezypoof
at 2:27 today, from Melissa: “I also totally thought the game ended at 8pm.”
yesterday, she says she’s too busy to be around, and then today tells us she put her vote on Inkarnit and then promptly left, never to look back again, at 8:00pm, because she “totally” thought we were done at 8:00. which, i think, has never been a thing.
then later today, regarding drinks, she tells us she forgot to peek night 1.
pretty fishy. i feel good with my vote on her.
August 29, 2018 at 7:49 pm
spookymilk
A little over an hour to go.
.
.
.
ash10101 voting for meat
beezypoof voting for MelissaD
BigPapaJonTheElf voting for daneekasghost
Colin Prime voting for mbnovak
daneekasghost (4) voting for MelissaD
The Dread Pirate
mbnovak (2) voting for daneekasghost
meat (1)
MelissaD (3) voting for daneekasghost
nettiebarron voting for daneekasghost
todahshy voting for MelissaD
Warhammer voting for mbnovak
Long story short, I’ll be around tonight.
August 29, 2018 at 8:04 pm
beezypoof
I have to say this seems interesting to me:
At 11:21, Novak starts talking about how people shouldn’t drink the drinks. If he received a drink from DG, he knows no LATER than 12:25, cuz DG says he sent his drinks at 10:00am, and I received the email about mine at 12:25 from Kelly. Novak doesn’t then come back to say anything about having received drinks, or his inclination to drink them, until 2:31. that’s TWO HOURS he says nothing about the drinks he’s received, or about rethinking his position on us taking drinks. suddenly he’s all ready to drink these drinks, and acts as if it’s crunch time for us to share our thoughts. he tells us he accepts the drinks at 3:08. so he’s given us a mere 37 minutes to discuss this thing that is so “time sensitive,” when he could have given us two hours. seems like he’d already made the choice. may even already have drunk the things, but wanted to spend this time keeping any of us from hunting while we focused on his problem. i dunno.
when he was suggesting we not drink, DG was saying he didn’t see why we shouldn’t. opinions were in opposition to one another. and now votes are piled on DG.
hmm…
i think we’ve got wolves in Novak, Melissa, and meat. there, i said it.
August 29, 2018 at 8:07 pm
daneekasghost
I have one drink to send per day. Today I sent it to you.
August 29, 2018 at 8:13 pm
beezypoof
yes, i’m sorry. i was mixed up. cuz…MS brain is a dumb brain. (seriously, i’m kind of embarrassed by how un-good i am at this game anymore. it’s upsetting me some [see: when i got pissed at Novak for telling me to hurry up…cuz i can’t. and he didn’t deserve that.])
August 29, 2018 at 8:08 pm
The Dread Pirate
Novak didn’t get a drink from DG; you did. People who served drinks to Novak, when did you serve them?
August 29, 2018 at 8:10 pm
beezypoof
shit…i hate it when my logic fails. i still think i’m right, though. call it intuition.
August 29, 2018 at 8:12 pm
beezypoof
he said he was under a crunch to respond to one of them. we have five hours to accept, yes? if he has to accept at 3:00, that means he got at least 1 at 10:00.
August 29, 2018 at 8:12 pm
MelissaD
I sent the drink to Novak at 1:57pm.
August 29, 2018 at 8:09 pm
beezypoof
during the same post (2:31), he says this: “Now, if I say yes, and it was the seer wolf, and I can still talk, then, great, we can prove the seer wolf wanted to know me and that 99% clears me (again, that would be a ballsy move otherwise).”
we’d have no way of knowing if the wolf seer peeked him, cuz it’ll just tell him that he’s been peeked by a seer, not which one.
August 29, 2018 at 8:19 pm
mbnovak
That post was breaking down a number of options, since we didn’t have all the facts we do now.
For what its worth, the timing thing was because I didn’t get the e-mail notices, and Spooky reached out to me to make sure I was aware of the drinks, and my time was already running out on the first one, which I had been unaware for the first two hours of it.
Also, that first one was from the silencer wolf, who obviously isn’t going to tell us what time it was served.
August 29, 2018 at 8:23 pm
beezypoof
you stated earlier that you didn’t receive anything from Kelly via email, and now you’re saying you did, but you just didn’t see them?
August 29, 2018 at 8:25 pm
mbnovak
No, I still had not received them last time I checked my e-mail before I left work today. I got a message from him on a service other than e-mail and he told me I had two drinks and roughly the time I had left on them.
August 29, 2018 at 8:28 pm
The Dread Pirate
Next game, can I get on your connection of cans and string to pass messages, too?
August 29, 2018 at 8:24 pm
beezypoof
and obviously it was breaking down options. that still doesn’t explain the misstep.
August 29, 2018 at 8:18 pm
BigPapaJonTheElf
I’ve felt this several times today, at least in regard to Melissa and Novak. I can’t prove it. It feels risky to change my vote now, but I’m not really comfortable where it is either. Shit.
August 29, 2018 at 8:09 pm
todahshy
I believe dg. No reason for him to come out as a wolf. Especially in this game where the seer is not as powerful so not worth sacrificing yourself to get him.
I’m staying on Melissa.
August 29, 2018 at 8:13 pm
The Dread Pirate
On the other hand, seer wolf’s only value is to identify good seer and angel, and angel is already dead. Seer wolf knows if (s)he makes a good seer claim, then good seer will counter and seer wolf will have completely accomplished the goal.
August 29, 2018 at 8:21 pm
ash10101
Oof I was gonna say todah had a good point but this is also a pretty good one.
August 29, 2018 at 8:13 pm
beezypoof
during the same post (2:31), he says this: “Now, if I say yes, and it was the seer wolf, and I can still talk, then, great, we can prove the seer wolf wanted to know me and that 99% clears me (again, that would be a ballsy move otherwise).”
we’d have no way of knowing if the wolf seer peeked him, cuz it’ll just tell him that he’s been peeked by a seer, not which one.
August 29, 2018 at 8:14 pm
beezypoof
sorry for double post.
August 29, 2018 at 8:14 pm
beezypoof
me too.
August 29, 2018 at 8:15 pm
MelissaD
The reason to come out is to cause this ruckus. He is the seer. So Ann i. He knows this confusion will happen because we’re both right, and all people have to decide is which is good and which is bad. By claiming first, and betting on me being gone for hours (like typical Werewolf games), he was hedging his bets on being immediately believed with nobody countering it for potentially hours.
You guys can lynch me, but you’re out 2 villagers tonight then when I’m dead and one is eaten later by DG and Beezy. Sure, you get DG tomorrow, but then another villager is out again before you can get to the next wolf guess.
August 29, 2018 at 8:16 pm
MelissaD
Ann i?? AM I
August 29, 2018 at 8:21 pm
The Dread Pirate
DG never peeked you so why would he be betting you would be gone for hours and unable to counter?
August 29, 2018 at 8:22 pm
MelissaD
Because I said I was going to be gone for the whole day. Until 6pm. It was random I got to be here earlier.
August 29, 2018 at 8:26 pm
The Dread Pirate
But he didn’t know YOU were the seer. I could have the seer. Or Nettie could have. Or Pope. Or Warhammer. Him coming out had absolutely nothing to do with you specifically being seer.
August 29, 2018 at 8:28 pm
MelissaD
Wow. You’re right.
See here. I’m just paranoid I assumed Brooks read my thoughts.
My god. I need a drink. Or maybe less drinks?
August 29, 2018 at 8:29 pm
MelissaD
Wow. Just. Huh.
My brain is already dead. Might as well lynch the rest of me for all the good I do as a villager these days.
Wow.
August 29, 2018 at 8:22 pm
BigPapaJonTheElf
unvote daneekasghost
Vote Melissa
You better not be a wolf, Brooks. Or I’m coming for you. And Hell’s coming with…*looks around for Hell, doesn’t see it*… AND HELL’S GOING TO BE SOMEWHERE TOO!
August 29, 2018 at 8:24 pm
mbnovak
This is a fast check in.
We know all 3 drinks went out today. Melissa’s went to me, DG’s went to Beezy, silencer wolf went to me.
Do we think DG sent a drink to Beezy as a wolf? Well… that’s entirely possible, especially if it happened after I revealed the two drinks I had. There’s no way for us to know, apart from trusting Beezy.
Either way, I doubt DG used a fake-out drink on meat to gain credibility, so if DG is the wolf, then I think meat is as good as clean.
Alright, gotta go read to the kids.
I think DG is the better vote right now, not based on his “I’m afraid of scary DG” but because I’m reading his day more wolfy than Melissa’s. Melissa keeps responding to DG, DG is pleading to the rest of the village. Melissa’s responses seem less calculated, more gut-driven, which tends to be villagery. But I might well be wrong.
August 29, 2018 at 8:28 pm
daneekasghost
Melissa isn’t going to change her vote. So I’m not trying to convince Melissa. I’m trying to convince the rest of the village.
August 29, 2018 at 8:24 pm
The Dread Pirate
Another thought: Novak started a nice, long discussion about whether we should all stop accepting drinks at 11:45am. He was pretty emphatic that drinks should be rejected. Why would good seer then serve him a drink at 1:57pm?
August 29, 2018 at 8:24 pm
mbnovak
This is a very good question.
August 29, 2018 at 8:25 pm
MelissaD
Because good seer hadn’t read that part yet and was mostly concerned about getting any peek in for fear of forgetting again. You are overestimating my playing ability right now. Where is Wolfson to appropriately put me in my place?
August 29, 2018 at 8:26 pm
beezypoof
i said this thing.
August 29, 2018 at 8:35 pm
Warhammer
This is why I’m still pretty set on Novak. Novak and Melissa to be exact. His whole story wasn’t overly convincing to me – he would literally say the same reasoning if he was the silencer. I wasn’t convinced by the discussion I’ve just now read since that statement five hours ago…
August 29, 2018 at 8:44 pm
mbnovak
Dude, I’m about as not a wolf as it gets. Getting locked in on something like this is crazy if you’re a villager.
August 29, 2018 at 8:52 pm
meat
fuck me, now I’m agreeing with novak. /eyerollofthecentury/
August 29, 2018 at 8:31 pm
The Dread Pirate
Ok Melissa, besides DG – who else do you suspect as the remaining wolves and why?
August 29, 2018 at 8:38 pm
MelissaD
Well, in the insanity that was me apparently believing Brooks knew I was the good seer this time and was basing all his moves on JUST me, I also thought that Novak being declared a vanillager via my drink meant he was truly a vanillager. Others have reminded me he could be a wolf who looks like a villager. The drink fiasco makes me think he is actually a wolf. Why, otherwise, would it be “safe” for him to choose to drink them? He potentially knew he wasn’t seeable.
I’m leaning towards Beezy because she sorta gloms on to whoever seems to make the most sense at the time. It’s not really hunting but gives the sense of hunting. It’s an easy tactic to take when you’re a wolf and You don’t know how to frame others as wolves.
Though, that being said, Ash is doing the same thing. I’m just more likely to brush that off because Ash always does that.
A DG. Novak pairing would DEFINITELY devise this “fake seer” logic puzzle.
Pope gives wolf vibes, but that’s more intuitive than any form of reasoning.
Prime is probably a villager. He’s too gone.
I think Nettie’s a villager.
Meat…I dunno.
August 29, 2018 at 8:41 pm
beezypoof
i’ll remind you that the only time i was a wolf, i KILLED this game. I was last wolf standing, and I won, because i DO know how to properly frame a wolf game. so, there’s that.
August 29, 2018 at 8:43 pm
ash10101
I’m not really sure this is a great way to convince us you aren’t a wolf lol
August 29, 2018 at 8:45 pm
beezypoof
yeah, if her point is that i’m a wolf because i’m no good at framing a wolf game, this should prove i’m no wolf.
August 29, 2018 at 8:47 pm
beezypoof
if i didn’t know how to frame others as wolves, i’d never have won that game. i’d do a better job than “easy tactics.”
August 29, 2018 at 8:46 pm
mbnovak
FWIW, I completely remember this, and it’s been in my head plenty today.
August 29, 2018 at 8:48 pm
beezypoof
so you think i’m a wolf, or you don’t?
August 29, 2018 at 8:59 pm
mbnovak
I don’t know.
But if DG is a wolf, and after I made my play he quickly sent an evil seer claim your way, I 100% think you would have known how to play it. So basically, if DG is the wolf, I don’t think you’re clean (but you might be… not saying you are a wolf, just the possibility remains open). If Melissa is the wolf, I think you’re likely clean.
August 29, 2018 at 8:45 pm
meat
again, if I’m not cooked to a safe temperature you’ll pay the price.
August 29, 2018 at 8:32 pm
beezypoof
where do votes sit right now, with 30 minutes left? (I am literally to stupid to try to figure this out and be correct.)
August 29, 2018 at 8:42 pm
beezypoof
as evidence by the fact that i just wrote “to” instead of “too.”
August 29, 2018 at 8:39 pm
meat
I’m leaning towards a melissa vote, though I still can’t figure out why a wolf would second claim … I know I’m not a wolf, and that DG served me a drink and saw that I’m a villager.
August 29, 2018 at 8:40 pm
spookymilk
TWENTY MINUTES
.
.
.
ash10101 voting for meat
beezypoof voting for MelissaD
BigPapaJonTheElf voting for MelissaD
Colin Prime
daneekasghost (3) voting for MelissaD
The Dread Pirate
mbnovak (1) voting for daneekasghost
meat (1)
MelissaD (4) voting for daneekasghost
nettiebarron voting for daneekasghost
todahshy voting for MelissaD
Warhammer voting for mbnovak
Two-strike rule applies, so get dem votes in if you’re worried about that.
August 29, 2018 at 8:40 pm
MelissaD
Oh right. Warhammer exits.
Um. Hey. What’s up, newbie? I totally remembered you were playing.
August 29, 2018 at 8:41 pm
MelissaD
*EXISTS
My god. I’m done for tonight.
My death time is in your hands, everyone!
August 29, 2018 at 8:42 pm
meat
wtf ash? Seriously still voting for me? The debate is between which seer we believe and you’re still fucking voting for me?
August 29, 2018 at 8:43 pm
meat
and double what the fuck for the warhammer. You’re new to this bunch, but why still on novak?
August 29, 2018 at 8:51 pm
Warhammer
Because his whole reasoning loop shouted I’m a wolf to me – I could be wrong, but he’s clearly not getting voted off this night, but his reasoning is likely exactly what I’d say as silencer. I could switch to Melissa – I’m not convinced of DG and haven’t been since about 1pm day 1…
August 29, 2018 at 8:53 pm
meat
seriously!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!!? the decision tonight is between two mutherfuckers who fucking claimed seer role. This is not a time to fucking dither.
August 29, 2018 at 8:54 pm
beezypoof
dude, don’t fucking holler at people. that’s not cool.
August 29, 2018 at 8:56 pm
meat
don’t tell me what to do / smileemoji
August 29, 2018 at 8:57 pm
mbnovak
Dude, almost everything I threw out there was stuff I would have no way of knowing and could have been verified, and was verified. It would have been a horrible play if I was a wolf.
August 29, 2018 at 8:44 pm
beezypoof
i think Ash hasn’t been around in a while. i’m more concerned about the people who’ve placed no vote at all.
Colin
DP
Oh, and look, you, meat. you also haven’t voted.
August 29, 2018 at 8:46 pm
meat
Last game ash came and went and didn’t vote on the last day because his interwebs were caught in his pants. This, though is bs. These two jokers aren’t here to read or vote with two clear candidates?
August 29, 2018 at 8:48 pm
The Dread Pirate
I’m around. If you can’t tell, I’ve been trying to shake this thing from every direction to see what comes out. Don’t worry, I’ll get a vote in.
August 29, 2018 at 9:06 pm
beezypoof
i could tell that you’ve been hunting. i wasn’t like, “where the fuck is DP?,” i was just saying that i hoped we’d get a vote in from everyone. that’s all.
August 29, 2018 at 8:49 pm
meat
because I can’t fucking decide which is the more baller move.
August 29, 2018 at 8:51 pm
beezypoof
you’ve got 9 minutes, so…
August 29, 2018 at 8:54 pm
meat
I’m aware.
August 29, 2018 at 8:45 pm
ash10101
I just haven’t moved it sorry. I missed most of the last bit cause I had some last minute homework to do and when I left I wasn’t sure which way I was going.
August 29, 2018 at 8:47 pm
meat
c’mon man. I’m still sniffing novak out, but he’s not tonight’s decision, and either am I.
August 29, 2018 at 8:48 pm
mbnovak
This. Meat and I are both like 90% clean or more.
August 29, 2018 at 8:48 pm
beezypoof
so which way are you going?
August 29, 2018 at 8:50 pm
ash10101
I’m still not wildly confident either way, but I’m gonna vote melissa I just don’t see a wolf claiming like DG did, and a fair chunk of what she has said since then has seemed to me like somewhat wolfly, scared reaction to thinking her lie wasn’t believed.
August 29, 2018 at 8:51 pm
meat
you should unvote first …
August 29, 2018 at 8:53 pm
ash10101
Shit I definitely forgot that thanks meat
August 29, 2018 at 8:52 pm
The Dread Pirate
vote DG
I think he realizes that by coming out, he will have served the entire purpose of the role and could perhaps buy an extra day while giving others cover: https://spookymilk.wordpress.com/2018/08/29/werewolf-speakeasy-iii-day-two/#comment-88358
August 29, 2018 at 8:52 pm
Colin Prime
trying to get a light fixture in before dark.
I’ve been thinking, why does Melissa claim after DG as the wolf? That doesn’t make sense, unless she’s got a plan with Novak, but Novak being a wolf seems more and more unlikely.
So…
Anyone else have thoughts on this?
August 29, 2018 at 8:52 pm
beezypoof
8 minutes, and no votes have changed, is that correct?
August 29, 2018 at 8:52 pm
beezypoof
8 minutes left, that is.
August 29, 2018 at 8:53 pm
beezypoof
dammit! how do i get this thing to update in real time? fuck me.
August 29, 2018 at 8:54 pm
spookymilk
SIX MINUTES
.
.
.
ash10101 voting for MelissaD
beezypoof voting for MelissaD
BigPapaJonTheElf voting for MelissaD
Colin Prime
daneekasghost (4) voting for MelissaD
The Dread Pirate voting for daneekasghost
mbnovak (1) voting for daneekasghost
meat
MelissaD (5) voting for daneekasghost
nettiebarron voting for daneekasghost
todahshy voting for MelissaD
Warhammer voting for mbnovak
August 29, 2018 at 8:54 pm
ash10101
For the above reasons, I’m gonna unvote meat, vote melissa
August 29, 2018 at 8:56 pm
beezypoof
i like this move! (though i, too, still think meat is a wolf.)
August 29, 2018 at 8:58 pm
ash10101
Idk, Meat is still looking a little odd to me but I think he’s more just a Very Aggressive Villager. He seems to be hunting a bit hard
August 29, 2018 at 8:56 pm
mbnovak
For whatever its worth, if we get the right seer tonight, there’s a decent chance I’m the night kill (or one of the other all-but-confirmed villagers too, so hopefully they’ll put down some sort of thoughts)(meat, Beezy potentially).
People I still find wolfy:
Most: Colin Prime – this is one of his classic wolf games. Absent with excuse. Lacks specificity in his posts.
In no order, but I’d bet there’s at least one in there:
Warhammer sometimes (I’m not sure about that wolf don’t know each other thing. If not for that, I’d still feel him.)
Nettie – Still cautions and absent.
BigPapaJon – Still not much read on him, which bothers me.
Leaning clean, but if a wolf they’re doing a pretty good job:
DPWY (some of his logic on the role stuff and some of his responses have struck me funny. Nothing specific to point to. If Melissa is a wolf, I think DPWY is more likely clean, since he’s asking the tough questions of her, and some tough ones of DG too. Seems to be hunting, but could be a show because it’s just the two that he’s going between. I’d love him to put out his thoughts tonight too.
Todahshy – basically the same as DPWY
Ash – This game looks just like other Ash vilalger games
Most likely clean based on circumstances:
meat
Beezy* – If DG is the wolf, less likely than meat to be clean, because that could totally have happened as a backup “gain credibility for himself and another wolf” move. If Melissa is the wolf, likely clean.
August 29, 2018 at 8:59 pm
Colin Prime
I can post pictures of the renovation I’m doing if you like…
August 29, 2018 at 9:00 pm
mbnovak
Okay, Dean.
August 29, 2018 at 9:03 pm
Colin Prime
I don’t get it
August 29, 2018 at 9:08 pm
beezypoof
did you vote, though, Colin?
August 29, 2018 at 8:59 pm
ash10101
Colin Prime’s classic wolf move is to literally vanish off the face of the earth? Fun.
August 29, 2018 at 8:59 pm
beezypoof
were you asking me to clarify something, Novak?
August 29, 2018 at 9:06 pm
Colin Prime
Also I’ve been very specific. I don’t get anymore specific than I have been today. I don’t. Have. Time.
August 29, 2018 at 9:14 pm
Colin Prime
Also I’m on my goddamn phone. All. Day. This sucks to play and I don’t have time to get time stamps. Get your blinders off and think.
August 29, 2018 at 9:18 pm
mbnovak
I’m not on you 100%, just… looming large.
August 29, 2018 at 8:56 pm
meat
melissa, this is the last chance to tell us why you’re not a wolf.
August 29, 2018 at 8:57 pm
Warhammer
unvote mbnovak; vote MelissaD
August 29, 2018 at 8:58 pm
meat
i shout you down and you change for no reason?
August 29, 2018 at 9:00 pm
Warhammer
Clearly Novak wasn’t happening tonight, and I need to make sure wolves don’t switch and cause DG to go, as I’m pretty comfortable with DG as a villager…
August 29, 2018 at 8:58 pm
Warhammer
This doesn’t clear you novak…just means your co-wolf Melissa gets the noose tonight!
August 29, 2018 at 8:58 pm
Colin Prime
vote DG have to go with my gut.
Melissa as Wolf second seer claiming doesn’t make sense.
August 29, 2018 at 8:59 pm
meat
Vote dg
I think its a brilliant play, and I can’t see a reason melissa would second claim.
August 29, 2018 at 9:00 pm
beezypoof
didn’t you just ask Melissa to prove why she’s not a wolf, and then voted dg? i don’t get it.
August 29, 2018 at 9:00 pm
spookymilk
VOTES TIED AT SIX
Timestamping applies
August 29, 2018 at 9:02 pm
beezypoof
so someone has to change their vote to end this for the night?
August 29, 2018 at 9:00 pm
Warhammer
meat and colin are sure wolves now…
August 29, 2018 at 9:02 pm
Colin Prime
Logic would be helpful
August 29, 2018 at 9:06 pm
Warhammer
I’d e suspicious of wolves changing vote or adding vote in the last minute or two….you both jumped on DG rather late…
August 29, 2018 at 9:11 pm
Colin Prime
Last minute votes are part of every game. You did it yourself. So did DP.
August 29, 2018 at 9:01 pm
spookymilk
15 minute tiebreak if not broken
August 29, 2018 at 9:01 pm
Warhammer
care to give the 10 second version of how this works?
August 29, 2018 at 9:04 pm
The Dread Pirate
We have 15 minutes to vote for either/or. If it’s still a tie after 15 minutes, then it’s decided by a coinflip.
August 29, 2018 at 9:05 pm
The Dread Pirate
Shit, I would have preferred a coinflip to a mandatory villager loss.
August 29, 2018 at 9:06 pm
spookymilk
Not flipping coins anymore. I can’t stand coin flips looming so large in a game anymore.
August 29, 2018 at 9:03 pm
beezypoof
i’m also interested in this
August 29, 2018 at 9:01 pm
spookymilk
IT IS NIGHT…sorta
August 29, 2018 at 9:02 pm
ash10101
So….Melissa? DG? Why aren’t you wolves?
August 29, 2018 at 9:03 pm
spookymilk
“FINAL” VOTING
.
.
.
ash10101 voting for MelissaD
beezypoof voting for MelissaD
BigPapaJonTheElf voting for MelissaD
Colin Prime voting for daneekasghost
daneekasghost (6) voting for MelissaD
The Dread Pirate voting for daneekasghost
mbnovak voting for daneekasghost
meat voting for daneekasghost
MelissaD (6) voting for daneekasghost
nettiebarron voting for daneekasghost
todahshy voting for MelissaD
Warhammer voting for MelissaD
We now enter a 15-minute tiebreak. You can change your vote to DG or Melissa, but don’t have to.
If it remains a tie at the end, I will randomly kill a villager, if available. If both are wolves, I will randomly kill one, but in any other tie scenario a villager will be killed.
I’m posting at 9:03 so NIGHT will be 9:18
August 29, 2018 at 9:05 pm
spookymilk
To be clear, if not clear enough above: a random villager from these two, if one or more is a villager. One of these two will die at NIGHT.
August 29, 2018 at 9:07 pm
ash10101
Oof we really do not want this to go to a coin flip where we auto lose assuming BOTH arent lying in some absurd fashion
August 29, 2018 at 9:10 pm
meat
does ‘yikes’ work in this situation?
August 29, 2018 at 9:06 pm
mbnovak
Ash – to answer your question from above, Colin Prime does a very good job when he is a wolf of being absent, making enough posts, and then being conveniently available when he needs to be. He’s a canny wolf, and will vote out other wolves, so, for example, if DG is the wolf, I think his vote here wouldn’t clear him. The trigger for me is that his actual big posts have lacked the specificity he usually has (compare this game and last game, where he had time stamps and such).
August 29, 2018 at 9:08 pm
ash10101
Oh hmm ok interesting. I’ll have to go back and look at his last game in the morning, see what you mean
August 29, 2018 at 9:07 pm
MelissaD
Well, I’m not switching off DG. In case anyone was concerned.
My main argument is only that claiming second after DG would be a stupid move for a wolf. I’m not sure what I would successfully accomplish with that. I did shoot myself in the foot with my terrible first day when I got busy at work, forgot I was playing, and then forgot I had to have a drink request in by 5pm central (which is when au’m usually in the middle of my hour commute). Not having a first day peek sorta screwed me over.
August 29, 2018 at 9:08 pm
meat
I read and re-read the seer bits, and I can’t see a reason for any of the wolves to counter claim. I feel like it’s novak, dg and ??? Dg makes the seer play knowing that I’m a villager because he served me a drink I accepted. Novak starts the game with “I want to be DG.0” gag as cover. Provides useful ‘hunting’ and analysis through the day, and votes for DG who’ll certainly turn up a wolf, exonerates himself and is free to win the game in a hand wringing contest on the last day.
who the third wolf is? I have no fucking clue.
thats how I see things, and that’s why I voted for DG.
August 29, 2018 at 9:11 pm
MelissaD
I’m kinda wondering about Pope over there. It wouldn’t surprise me that he’s mostly absent since that’s his thing, but my only other hunch comes from him voting for me. A wolf would know I’m a good seer because they’d know DG was not. So not being present most of the day, and then voting for me on little evidence, makes me wonder if he’s protecting DG.
August 29, 2018 at 9:12 pm
MelissaD
But once again, this hunch relies on me being the good seer. So you all would have to believe that, too.
August 29, 2018 at 9:17 pm
meat
if you come up good then brooks is dead tomorrow. we lose either me or novak, which ever the wolves feel will be less patsy. (though novak is certainly dirty…. he needs a bath at the least).
August 29, 2018 at 9:11 pm
mbnovak
Oh come on meat. I know you want it to be me, but it’s not. It’s just not.
August 29, 2018 at 9:09 pm
mbnovak
Warhammer – both meat and Colin are good enough players that they’d even jump on a wolf that late, potentially, knowing that it buys them cred.
That said, meat is almost certainly clean because if DG is the good seer, the odds are low that he hit the hidden wolf (just straight up percentages, though not a sure thing by any means); and if DG is the evil seer the odds are very very small that he would have used his first drink on another wolf on the off chance he needed the credibility later in the game.
August 29, 2018 at 9:12 pm
meat
Ugh. this gets my eye baguette. I’m not good enough at all.
August 29, 2018 at 9:13 pm
mbnovak
It is entirely possible I’m giving your wolf game too much credit. You certainly haven’t been good enough as a villager picking on me…
August 29, 2018 at 9:14 pm
meat
heh. this is more of an eye biscuit, but I’ll accept it.
August 29, 2018 at 9:11 pm
spookymilk
SEVEN minutes remain.
August 29, 2018 at 9:11 pm
beezypoof
i’d like to point out that all the people who other believe to be villagers (except me, maybe?) have voted for Melissa. everyone we’ve been concerned about is voting DG. i feel like wolves are voting DG. if you’re a villager with a vote on DG, consider this, please!
August 29, 2018 at 9:13 pm
meat
This doesn’t make sense to me. I’m certainly a villager, and there is very certainly an advantage to a DG wolf false claiming.
August 29, 2018 at 9:13 pm
Warhammer
This is my feeling and convincing to me certainly, but I’m already on Melissa….
August 29, 2018 at 9:14 pm
beezypoof
yeah, too bad, huh? 😉
August 29, 2018 at 9:12 pm
mbnovak
Alright, is anyone willing to switch? Let’s get this figured out in the next 2 minutes so we have a tiny bit of room to spare?
August 29, 2018 at 9:13 pm
BigPapaJonTheElf
Unvote Melissa
vote daneekasghost
I’m still torn on both of them, but if we lose a villager, I’d rather it weren’t random.
August 29, 2018 at 9:14 pm
MelissaD
Fine. Go ahead and blow my theory. :p
August 29, 2018 at 9:15 pm
Warhammer
That was going to be my plan, as random (always choosing villager) is worse than any small chance that DG might be a wolf in my mind….
Any one on DG willing to vote for Melissa if BPJTE comes back to Melissa?!
August 29, 2018 at 9:16 pm
The Dread Pirate
Nope. I can see the calculation in DG’s play if he’s wolf seer. I see absolutely no why Melissa’s claim makes sense as the wolf seer.
August 29, 2018 at 9:17 pm
Colin Prime
This
August 29, 2018 at 9:18 pm
nettiebarron
I agree
August 29, 2018 at 9:16 pm
mbnovak
Note this response guys. It’s not random. We have a wolf here. We have a villager here. The villager will die.
August 29, 2018 at 9:18 pm
meat
which response?
August 29, 2018 at 9:16 pm
spookymilk
TWO MINUTES
7 votes DG
5 votes Melissa
August 29, 2018 at 9:17 pm
MelissaD
Annette?!?! Any thoughts!?!?
August 29, 2018 at 9:17 pm
Warhammer
Damnit villagers…this all feels wrong! I hope 4 of you aren’t choosing wrong here…
August 29, 2018 at 9:18 pm
spookymilk
IT IS NIGHT
Timestamping applies
August 29, 2018 at 9:19 pm
spookymilk
NIGHT FOR REAL
No more talking, bitches
August 29, 2018 at 9:19 pm
spookymilk
FINAL VOTING
.
.
.
ash10101 voting for MelissaD
beezypoof voting for MelissaD
BigPapaJonTheElf voting for daneekasghost
Colin Prime voting for daneekasghost
daneekasghost (7) voting for MelissaD
The Dread Pirate voting for daneekasghost
mbnovak voting for daneekasghost
meat voting for daneekasghost
MelissaD (5) voting for daneekasghost
nettiebarron voting for daneekasghost
todahshy voting for MelissaD
Warhammer voting for MelissaD
August 29, 2018 at 9:25 pm
spookymilk
It was a tie! How exciting. In such an event, we turn to the Electoral College, who naturally have never made a mistake.
“I believe Melissa is a wolf,” said Timmy Superdelegate.
“On the contrary, I believe daneekasghost is a wolf,” replied Timmy Superdelegate, a different guy with, astonishingly, the same name.
The argument lasted well into the night. At the eleventh hour, there was a shift, and a decision had been made. The bar would hang daneekasghost, as they didn’t believe his convenient story.
DG twitched to a stop, and the crowd gasped in wonder as the silence seemed to consume the room. Finally, they saw it: in death, his fangs and tail were showing; he had been the Red Devil. They had, indeed, done one-third of the job.
Wolves, make a kill in the next hour or so.